Press Release

September 2014 Peace Index

82% of Israeli Jews Say Refusal to Serve by 8200 Reservists Is Unacceptable

7 in 10 Israeli Jews Want Hamas Excluded from Peace Talks, 7 in 10 Israeli Arabs Want Hamas Included

The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) and Tel Aviv University are releasing the monthly Peace Index poll, which this month covers Israeli public opinion on the acceptability to refuse to serve in the IDF, satisfaction and trust in the leadership of Israel, Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, the threat of the Islamic State, the aftermath of Operation Protective Edge, and predictions for personal and national changes in the new year.

Refusal to Serve by Some Reservists of the IDF’s 8200 Signal Intelligence Unit

  • Refusal to Serve: Following the letter by some reservists of the IDF’s 8200 signal intelligence unit stating their refusal to serve, 82% of Israeli Jews state that such a refusal to serve based on moral concerns is unacceptable, while 12% state that refusal to serve on moral grounds is acceptable. 74% of Israelis Arabs state that refusal to serve based on moral grounds is acceptable, and 18% state that it is unacceptable. Among Israeli Jews who find refusal unacceptable are 90% of the self-defined right, 76% of the center, and 58% of the left.

Satisfaction With and Trust in Israeli Leadership

  • Satisfaction with Chosen Party: 52% of Jewish Israelis are satisfied with the party they voted for in the most recent elections, and 37% are not satisfied with their choice. 38% of Arab Israelis are not satisfied with the party for which they voted, and 28% are satisfied. 7% of Jewish Israelis and 24% of Arab Israelis stated that they did not vote. The most satisfied with the party they chose are United Torah Judaism (93%) and Meretz (80%) voters, followed by Likud-Beytenu (66%), Shas and HaTnua (56%), Bayit Yehudi (53%), and Labor (47%); the least satisfied with the party they voted for are Yesh Atid voters with only 40% satisfied. 
  • Trust in the Country’s Leadership: 62% of Israelis (61% of Israeli Jews and 70% of Israeli Arabs) currently have no or don’t have much trust in the Israeli leadership. 36% of Israelis (38% Israeli Jews and 21% of Israeli Arabs) have a lot or quite a lot of trust in the Israeli leadership.

Palestinian-Israeli Peace Negotiations

  • Renewing Peace Talks: Considering the changes in the Middle East including increased Egyptian involvement in Israeli-Palestinian contacts since Operation Protective Edge, 52% of Israelis (50% of Israeli Jews and 64% of Israeli Arabs) believe that the time is right for renewing Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. 43% of Israelis (44% of Israeli Jews and 34% of Israeli Arabs) believe that the time is not right for renewing peace talks.
  • Including Hamas in Peace Talks: In light of a recent opinion poll which saw a significant rise in Hamas’s status and predicted that they would win Palestinian Authority elections if held today, 72% of Jewish Israelis think Israel should not agree to include Hamas in the talks with the Palestinians, while 23% think Israel should agree to include Hamas. 70% of Arab Israelis think Israel should agree to include Hamas in talks, and 16% think Israel should not agree to include Hamas.

The Threat of the Islamic State and American Resolve

  • Resolve of the Islamic State: 80% of Israelis (83% of Israeli Jews and 59% of Israeli Arabs) believe that the members of the Islamic State are sufficiently resolved to fight until victory. 14% of Israelis (11% of Israeli Jews and 30% of Israeli Arabs) do not believe that the Islamic State is sufficiently resolved to fight until victory.
  • American Resolve to Fight the Islamic State: 60% of Israelis (60% of the Jewish public and 55% of the Arab public) do not believe that the US administration and American people are sufficiently resolved to fight the Islamic State until victory is achieved. 35% of Israelis (34% of the Jewish public and 40% of the Arab public) do believe that the US administration has sufficient resolve to fight the Islamic State until victory is achieved.
  • Danger of the Islamic State to Israel: 55% of Israelis do not believe that the Islamic State endangers Israel’s existence, while 40% of Israelis believe that it does endanger Israel’s existence.

Aftermath of Operation Protective Edge

  • Status of Israel’s National Security: Among Jewish Israelis, 46% believe that Operation Protective Edge did not change Israel’s national security, 27% believe that the operation improved it, and 24% believe Israeli national security was damaged. Among Arab Israelis, 65% believe that Operation Protective Edge damaged Israel’s national security, 23% believed that the operation did not change it, and 6% believe the operation improved it.
  • Victor of Operation Protective Edge: 46% of the Jewish public believe that Israel achieved more in Operation Protective Edge, 25% believe both sides had the same level of achievement, 14% believe neither side achieved anything, and 13% believe that Hamas achieved more. 40% of the Arab public believe that Hamas achieved more in Operation Protective Edge, 26% believe that neither side achieved anything, 18% believe that both sides had the same level of achievement, and 5% believe that Israel achieved more.

Satisfaction with Personal and National Factors

  • Satisfaction with Personal Situation: 75% of Israelis are satisfied with their personal situation at present, and 25% are not satisfied.
  • Change in Personal Situation Next Year: 45% of Jewish Israelis expect their overall situation to remain the same in the coming year, 38% expect it to be better, and 8% expect it to be worse. 37% of Arab Israelis expect their overall situation to be better in the coming year, 33% expect it to remain the same, and 24% expect it to be worse.
  • Satisfaction with the Situation of the Country: 59% of Israeli Jews are not satisfied with the general situation of the country, while 38% are satisfied. 52% of Israeli Arabs are satisfied with the general situation of the country, and 42% are not satisfied.
  • Change in Situation of the Country Next Year: 35% of the Jewish public expect that the state of the state will remain the same in the coming year, 28% expect it will improve, and 24% expect it to worsen. 42% of the Arab public expect the state of the state to worsen in the coming year, 29% expect it to remain the same, and 21% expect it to improve.
  • Satisfaction with the Conduct of the Israeli Government in
    • Security: 61% of Israelis are satisfied with the conduct of the Israeli government in security issues, and 37% are not satisfied.
    • Economy: 69% of Israelis are not satisfied with the conduct of the Israeli government in economic issues, and 29% are satisfied.
    • Attentiveness to Citizens: 65% of Israelis are not satisfied with the Israeli government’s attentiveness to citizens, and 30% are satisfied.

This survey, conducted on September 16 - 18, 2014, included 600 respondents who constitute a representative sample of the adult population of Israel. The maximum measurement error for a sample of this size is ±4.1%.

The full results of the Peace Index are available on the Peace Index website.

For more information, contact:
Yehoshua Oz
Director of International Communications
press@idi.org.il