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January 2015 Peace Index

Survey
February 3, 2015

61% of Israeli Jews Believe Obama Will Approve Iranian Deal Over Israeli Security Objections

78% of Israeli Arabs Happy with Unification of Arab Parties

The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) and Tel Aviv University are releasing the monthly Peace Index poll, which this month surveys Israelis on their priorities when casting their ballots, who is more likely to form the next government and who would they prefer do so, US President Obama’s commitment to Israeli security, and the safety of Jews around the world.

Unification of the Arab Parties

  • 78% of Arab Israelis are content with the unification of the Arab parties into a single list for the coming election, while 11% are discontent with the unification.

Security vs. Economics

  • Voting on Socioeconomic vs. Foreign Policy / Security: 45% of Israelis (43% of Jewish Israelis and 56% of Arab Israelis) state that a party’s stance on socioeconomic issues will determine for which party they will vote in the upcoming elections. 30% of Israelis (33% of Jewish Israelis and 18% of Arab Israelis) will vote based on a party’s foreign policy / security stance, and 14% of Israelis (15% of Jewish Israelis and 10% of Arab Israelis) will vote based on both issues to the same extent.
  • Better Suited to Deal with Security: 58% of the Jewish public state that a government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu is better suited to deal with Israel’s security issues, while 27% state that a government headed by Tzipi Livni and Isaac Herzog is better suited. 48% of the Arab public state that a government headed by Livni and Herzog is better suited to deal with Israel’s security issues, while 26% state that a government headed by Netanyahu is better suited.
  • Better Suited to Deal with Socio-Economic Issues: 53% of Israelis (52% of Israeli Jews and 58% of Israeli Arabs) state that a government headed by Tzipi Livni and Isaac Herzog is better suited to deal with Israel’s socio-economic issues. 28% of Israelis (30% of Israeli Jews and 20% of Israeli Arabs) state that a government headed by Netanyahu is better suited to deal with Israel’s socio-economic issues.

Right vs. Left-Wing Government

  • Likelihood of Right-Wing or Left-Wing Coalition: 59% of Israeli Jews believe that the “right-wing” bloc has a better chance of forming the next government, while 28% believe that the “center-left” bloc has a better chance. 40% of Israeli Arabs believe that the “center-left” bloc has a better chance of forming the next coalition, and 35% believe that the “right-wing” bloc has a better chance.
  • Preference for a Right-Wing or Left-Wing Coalition: 53% of Jewish Israelis would prefer the government be formed by the “right-wing” bloc, while 38% would prefer the “center-left” bloc to do so. 54% of Arab Israelis would prefer the government be formed by the “center-left” bloc, while 18% of Arab Israelis would prefer the “right-wing” bloc to do so.

US President Obama and Israeli Security

  • Obama’s Commitment to Israeli Security: 61% of Israeli Jews and 49% of Israeli Arabs believe that US President Obama’s commitment to Israeli security is high. (Among Israeli Jews who see Obama’s commitment as high are 89% of self-declared Yesh Atid voters, 79% of Meretz voters, 76% of Labor voters, 51% of Likud voters, 40% of Yisrael Beytenu voters, and 38% of Bayit Yehudi voters.) 36% of Israeli Jews and 39% of Israeli Arabs believe that Obama’s commitment to Israeli security is low.
  • Chances of Obama Signing an Iranian Nuclear Agreement over Israeli Security Objections: 61% of Jewish Israelis believe there is a high chance that Obama will approve the signing of an agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue even if the Israeli government makes clear that, in its view, the agreement endangers Israeli security; 29% of Jewish Israelis believe there is a low chance that Obama would approve the signing of an agreement under those conditions. (Among Jewish Israelis who see chances as high for approval over Israeli security objections are 100% of self-declared Shas voters, 94% of Bayit Yehudi voters, 93% of Likud voters, and 85% of Yisrael Beytenu voters. Among Jewish Israelis who see chances as low for approval over Israeli security objections are 100% of Meretz voters and 95% of Labor voters.) 45% of Arab Israelis believe there is a low chance that Obama would approve the signing of an Iranian agreement if the Israeli government objected on security grounds, while 38% believe there is a high chance that Obama would approve the signing over Israeli security objections.

Safety of Jews Around the World

  • Trust in Governments to Protect the Jews of Their Country: Israeli Jews trust the governments of the United States (84%), Germany (60%), and Britain (49%) to make appropriate efforts to ensure the security of their Jewish communities. Israeli Jews do not trust the governments of Russian (70%), Argentina (68%), and France (60%) to take such steps.
  • Where Jews Are Safer: 45% of Israeli Jews believe that Jews living in the US are safer than those living in Israel; 28% believe US Jews are less safe, and 26% believe that US and Israeli Jews are equally safe. Israeli Jews believe that Jews living in France (71%), Russia (67%), Argentina (63%), Britain (55%), and Germany (52%) are less safe than those living in Israel.

This survey, conducted on January 27 - 29, 2015, included 600 respondents who constitute a representative sample of the adult population of Israel. The maximum measurement error for a sample of this size is ±4.1%.

The full results of the Peace Index are available on the Peace Index website.

For more information, contact:
Yehoshua Oz
Director of International Communications
press@idi.org.il
###

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