Will Israel go to war in the coming months?
Israeli public split on prospect of war in the coming months; the majority of Jewish Israelis think that the Palestinian demonstrations on the Gaza border were planned by the Hamas and that the IDF used appropriate force
June 5, 2018 - The monthly Peace Index of the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University, published today, finds that 43% of the Israeli public think that there is a high possibility of war in the coming months, while 46% think that the chances of war are low; 68% of Jewish Israelis think that the Palestinian protests on the Gaza border were planned by the Hamas, while 62% of Arab Israelis think that the protests were a result of despair from the living conditions in Gaza.
Main findings
Iran: The Jewish public is split between those who believe the chances that Israel will be involved in an all-out war with Iran or some other military actor in the coming year are high (43%), and those who regard the chances of this as low (46%). In the Arab public, the majority (52.5%) views the chances of an all-out war with Iran in the foreseeable future as low.
The Palestinian demonstrations at the Gaza-Israel border: An overwhelming majority of the Jewish public (68%) agree with the claim that the Palestinian demonstrations at the Gaza border were planned by the Hamas. Among the Arab Israelis, the majority (62%) considers that the demonstrations are a result of the residents’ despair over their living conditions.
A clear majority of the Jewish public (62%) think the IDF’s handling of these demonstrations was appropriate in terms of the force that was used. Among the Arab Israelis, a large majority (92%) think the IDF used excessive force against these demonstrations.
Israeli-Arab demonstrations in Haifa: About half of the Jewish public think the police used appropriate force when handling the demonstrations in support of the Gaza residents. Some 70% give credence to the police’s claim that these demonstrations were violent and flouted the law. In contrast, the Israeli-Arab public think that the police used excessive force against the Arab demonstrators (77%) and give more credence to the Arab demonstrators’ account of what happened (74%).
Democracy pulse: The majority of the public (54%) disagree with the claim that Israeli democracy is in grave danger, though one cannot ignore the existence of a substantial minority (41%) that thinks the opposite. As expected, there is a close link between positions on this question and political affiliation: on the right only 28% agree that Israeli democracy is in grave danger, compared to 55% in the center and 75% on the left.
The survey conducted on May 28-30, 2018, included 600 respondents, who constitute a representative national sample of the adult population of Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum measurement error for the entire sample is ±4.1% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical analyses were done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay. http://www.peaceindex.org