Press Release

December 2014 Peace Index

Majority of Israeli Jews Believe, Prefer Right Will Form Next Gov’t; Majority of Israeli Arabs Believe, Prefer Left Will Form Next Gov’t

59% of Israelis Believe Peace Process Will Remain Stalled No Matter Makeup, Policy of Next Gov’t

Half of Israeli Arabs Cannot Place Non-Arab Political Parties on Foreign Policy/Security Axis

The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) and Tel Aviv University are releasing the monthly Peace Index poll, which this month surveys Israelis on their intention to vote and priorities when casting their ballots, who is more likely to form the next government and who would they prefer do so, where the political parties are on the map, and the peace process.

Intention to Vote, Voter Priorities

  • Intention to Vote: 90% of Jewish Israelis and 62% of Arab Israelis are either are certain or think they will vote in the upcoming elections. 7% of Jewish Israelis and 36% of Arab Israelis either think or are certain they will not vote.
      • Decided For Whom They Will Vote: Among those who are either certain or think they will vote, 59% of those Israelis have already decided for which party they will vote. 39% of those Israelis have not decided for which party they will vote.
      • Why Not Vote: Among those who either think or are certain they will not vote, the Israeli Jews answered that it makes no difference who one votes for because nothing changes (37%), there is no party whose positions match their opinions (13%), they will not be in Israel on election day (11%), and it is hard to get to the polling place (6%). Among those who either think or are certain they will not vote, the Israeli Arabs answered that it makes no difference who one votes for because nothing changes (26%), there is no party whose positions match their opinions (23%), it is hard to get to the polling place (6%), they will not be in Israel on election day (3%).
      • Voting on Socioeconomic vs. Foreign Policy / Security: 40% of Israelis (41% of Jewish Israelis and 36% of Arab Israelis) state that a party’s stance on socioeconomic issues will determine for which party they will vote in the upcoming elections. 32% of Israelis (33% of Jewish Israelis and 29% of Arab Israelis) will vote based on a party’s foreign policy / security stance, and 17% of Israelis (18% of Jewish Israelis and 12% of Arab Israelis) will vote based on both issues to the same extent.


Forming the Next Government, Political Parties on the Map, Prime Minister Pick

  • Likelihood of Right-Wing or Left-Wing Coalition: 60% of Israeli Jews believe that the “right-wing” bloc has a better chance of forming the next government, while 24% believe that the “center-left” bloc has a better chance.  52% of Israeli Arabs believe that the “center-left” bloc has a better chance of forming the next coalition, and 19% believe that the “right-wing” bloc has a better chance.
  • Preference for a Right-Wing or Left-Wing Coalition: 55% of Jewish Israelis would prefer the government be formed by the “right-wing” bloc, while 33% would prefer the “center-left” bloc to do so. 63% of Arab Israelis would prefer the government be formed by the “center-left” bloc, while 16% of Arab Israelis would prefer the “right-wing” bloc to do so.
  • Positioning of the Political Parties: Respondents were asked where each of the following parties are on the foreign policy / security political axis.
    • For all parties below, between 46% and 56% of Israeli Arabs either did not know / declined to answer or stated that the parties position was not clear at the moment.
    • Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home), headed by Naftali Bennett: Among Israeli Jews, 72% defined Bayit Yehudi as on the right, 7% in the center, 3% on the left, and 9% said it is currently unclear.
    • Likud, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu: Among Israeli Jews, 71% defined Likud as on the right, 12% in the center, 4% on the left, and 7% said it is currently unclear.
    • HaAm Itanu, headed by Eli Yishai: Among Israeli Jews, 52% defined HaAm Itanu as on the right, 11% in the center, 2% on the left, and 18% said it is currently unclear.
    • Yisrael Beytenu, headed by Avigdor Liberman: Among Israeli Jews, 51% defined Yisrael Beytenu as on the right, 19% in the center, 5% on the left, and 17% said it is currently unclear.
    • Shas, headed by Aryeh Deri: Among Israeli Jews, 41% defined Shas as on the right, 23% in the center, 7% on the left, and 17% said it is currently unclear.
    • Koolanu, headed by Moshe Kahlon: Among Israeli Jews, 31% defined Koolanu as in the center, 22% on the right, 5% on the left, and 25% said it is currently unclear.
    • Yesh Atid, headed by Yair Lapid: Among Israeli Jews, 47% defined Yesh Atid as in the center, 24% on the left, 8% on the right, and 14% said it is currently unclear.
    • Labor-Hatnua, headed by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni: Among Israeli Jews, 50% defined Labor-Hatnua as on the left, 26% in the center, 5% on the left, and 10% said it is currently unclear.
    • Meretz headed, by Zehava Gal-On: Among Israeli Jews, 72% defined Meretz as on the left, 6% on the right, 3% in the center, and 7% said it is currently unclear.
  • Best Suited to Be PM: Netanyahu was rated best suited to be Israel’s next Prime Minister by a plurality (34.4%) of the Jewish public, followed by Herzog (17.7%), Bennett (10.5%), Livni (6.3%), Liberman (5.3%), Kahlon (4.2%), and Lapid (2.6%). Livni was selected as best suited to be Prime Minister by 10.5% of the Arab public, followed by Herzog (10.1%), Netanyahu (8.9%), Kahlon (4.9%), Bennett (3.3%), Lapid (2.6%), and Liberman (2.5%). 6% of the Jewish public and 57% of the Arab public either did not know or declined to answer.


Palestinian-Israeli Peace Process

  • Next Gov’t and the Peace Process: 59% of Israelis (61% of the Jewish public and 51% of the Arab public believe that it makes no difference who forms the next government nor what its policy will be, that the peace process is stalled and there is no chance to advance it in the foreseeable future. 36% of Israelis (35% of the Jewish public and 39% of the Arab public) disagree that it makes no difference who forms the next government or what is policy is, and that the peace process is stalled with no chance for advancement.
  • Damage Caused by Recognition of a Palestinian State: 70% of Israeli Jews and 34% of Israeli Arabs believe that recognition of a Palestinian state before a peace agreement damages Israel’s national interest. 13% of Israeli Jews and 23% of Israeli Arabs do not believe such recognition has any affect on Israel’s national interest, and 10% of Israeli Jews and 20% of Israeli Arabs believe that it advances Israel’s national interest.
  • Transferring Arab Neighborhoods of Eastern Jerusalem: 56% of Jewish Israelis believe that, in the framework of a permanent peace settlement under US sponsorship with appropriate security arrangements, the Arab neighborhoods in eastern Jerusalem could not be transferred to Palestinian control, while 38% do believe they could be. 44% of Arab Israelis believe that the neighborhoods could be transferred, while 41% do not believe they could be.

This survey, conducted on December 29 - 31, 2014, included 600 respondents who constitute a representative sample of the adult population of Israel. The maximum measurement error for a sample of this size is ±4.1%.

The full results of the Peace Index are available on the Peace Index website.

For more information, contact:
Yehoshua Oz
Director of International Communications
press@idi.org.il
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