Press Release

70+% of Israelis Believe US SecState John Kerry Will Fail to Restart Peace Talks; Majority Still in Favor of Negotiations

More than 70% of Israelis Believe US Sec’y of State John Kerry Will Fail to Restart Peace Talks Large Majority of Israelis Still in Favor of Palestinian-Israeli Negotiations

More than 70% of Israelis Believe US Sec'y of State John Kerry Will Fail to Restart Peace Talks

Large Majority of Israelis Still in Favor of Palestinian-Israeli Negotiations

Monday, 8 July 2013, Israel Democracy Institute, 4 Pinsker St., Jerusalem - With US Secretary of State John Kerry planning his sixth trip to Israel to advance the Palestinian-Israeli peace process amid turmoil in Egypt, the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) and Tel Aviv University released the results of their latest monthly Peace Index poll on Israeli attitudes towards peace talks and relations with Egypt.

Israelis were asked about their beliefs regarding the peace process.

  • Peace Negotiations Favorability: 64% of Jewish Israelis are in favor and 32% are opposed to peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, while 95% of Arab Israelis are in favor and 3% are opposed.
  • Negotiations Leading to Peace: 29% of Israeli Jews believe negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority will lead to peace in the coming years, while 69% believe they will not. 47% of Israeli Arabs believe they will, and 42% believe they will not.
  • Kerry's Chances of Success: 71% of Jewish Israelis and 72% of Arab Israelis believe that US Secretary of State John Kerry has a low chance of succeeding in restarting Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, while 22% of Jewish Israelis and 20% of Arab Israelis believe chances are high.
  • Partner for Peace:
    • Majorities of both Jewish (57%) and Arab (51%) respondents believe that the Israeli government does want to resume to peace talks.
    • A majority of Jewish Israelis (67%) believe that the Palestinian Authority does not want to resume peace negotiations, while a majority of Arab Israelis (86%) believe it does.
    • 58% of Israeli Jews hold that Israel need not show greater flexibility in order to facilitate the resumption of negotiations, while 37% think Israel should. 91% of Israeli Arabs hold that Israel should show greater flexibility, and 6% think Israel should not.
    • Of Israeli Jews who believe that the Palestinians want to return to talks, 68% think Israel should show greater flexibility. Among Jewish Israelis who believe that the Palestinians do not really want to resume talks, only 24% think Israel should show greater flexibility.
  • Importance of Negotiations: 39% of Jewish Israelis believe it is equally important to both sides that talks resume, 30% believe it is more important to Israel, 16% believe it is more important to the Palestinians, and 12% believe it is not important to either side. 59% of Arab Israelis believe it is equally important to both sides, 28% believe it is more important to the Palestinians, 11% believe it is more important to Israel, and 1% believe it is not important to either side.

Israelis were surveyed on how Prime Minister Netanyahu might proceed with implementing a two-state solution.

  • Ruling Party Support of Two-State Solution: 42% of the Jewish public and 35% of the Arab public believe Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will succeed in convincing the Likud to support an agreement based on two states, while 45% of the Jewish public and 48% of the Arab public believe he will not.
  • Splitting the Likud:
    • 50% of Israeli Jews believe that Netanyahu should not follow Ariel Sharon's precedent and leave the Likud party if a majority of the Likud opposes a two-state solution; 34% believe he should. 49% of Israeli Arabs believe Netanyahu should leave in such a scenario, and 30% believe he should not.
    • 75% of Israeli Jews and 65% of Israeli Arabs believe that Netanyahu will not leave the Likud if the party opposes an agreement based on two states, while 13% of Israeli Jews and 17% of Israeli Arabs believe he will.

On the eve of former Egyptian President Morsi's fall from power, the Israeli public was asked about the state of relations between Israel and Egypt.

  • Morsi In or Out of Power: Among Jewish respondents, 40% believed that it would be preferable for Israel that Morsi's government fall, 23% believed it would be preferable for Morsi's government to remain in power, and 10% believed it would not make a difference. Among Arab respondents, 41% believed it would be preferable for Israel if Morsi were to fall, 34% believed it would be preferable for Morsi to remain in power, and 4% believed it would not make a difference.
  • Change in Israeli-Egyptian Relations: 61% of Israeli Jews believed relations have changed for the worse since former Egyptian President Mubarak was removed from power; 26% believed relations have not changed, and 4% believed relations have changed for the better. 42% of Israeli Arabs believed relations have not changed, 33% believed they have changed for the worse, and 13% believed they have changed for the better.
  • Friendliness of Relations: 68% of Israeli Jews characterized Israeli Egyptian relations as unfriendly at present, and 23% defined them as friendly. 42% of Israeli Arabs defined them as friendly, and 41% of defined them as unfriendly.

This survey, conducted July 1–3, 2013, included 601 respondents who constitute a representative sample of the adult population of Israel. The measurement error for a sample of this size is 4.5%.

The full results of the Peace Index are available on IDI's Peace Index website.

For more information or to schedule an interview with Peace Index Co-Director Prof. Tamar Hermann, contact:
Yehoshua Oz
Director of International Communications
press@idi.org.il