Israelis Say They Base Their Vote on Party’s Economic Platform
The Israeli Voice Index for July 2022 found that the main factor influencing Israelis’ consideration when voting is the party’s platform on economic issues and its plan for coping with the high cost of living (44%). 24% of respondents say that the party head is their top factor in deciding which slate to vote for
Main Findings
* Similar to last month, around a third of respondents are optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel. A higher share are optimistic about the future of Israel’s national security, but in neither case are the optimists in the majority.
* President Biden’s visit to Israel disappointed many in the Jewish public, around half of whom believed before the visit that the president could bring about a breakthrough in reaching an agreement with Saudi Arabia. Now, only just over a third think that he can achieve such a breakthrough.
* However, regarding American commitment to ensuring Israel’s security in the context of negotiations with Iran, there was a rise in the proportion of those who are convinced of this commitment, relative to the survey conducted before Biden’s visit to Israel.
* The main factor influencing respondents’ decision on which party to vote for at the upcoming elections is the party’s platform on the economy and the high cost of living. In second place, a long way behind, is the identity of the party leader.
* At the same time, when it comes to deciding which party to vote for, the identity of the party leader is much more significant than the party’s list of candidates.
* A large majority of respondents said that primaries are a better method for selecting a party’s list of candidates for the elections than having the list decided by the party leader or by a party committee.
* Only half of the respondents reported that they will vote at the upcoming elections for the same party they voted for at the last elections. Around 15% will vote for a different party, the majority of them for a party that was in the coalition or opposition with the party they voted for last time. A sizable share of respondents (20%) have yet to decide who they will vote for.
* An overwhelming majority believe that the cost of living in Israel is high relative to other Western countries.
* In terms of financial expenses, the two expense categories that represented the greatest burden over the last year have been food and housing, with transport and tuition ranked at the bottom of this list.
* The average rise in expenses over the last year as reported by respondents is 8.5%, with most of the increase attributable to food and energy (electricity, natural gas, fuel), while incomes are reported to have remained the same or even fallen over the last year.
The National Mood
There was no change this month in the level of optimism about the future of democratic rule in Israel, with just over a third of respondents optimistic in this respect. The share of those optimistic about the future of national security declined slightly, and has returned more or less to its level before the plunge of March-April 2022 and the unexplained soar in June.
Optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel and about the future of national security, April 2019–July 2022 (total sample; %)
President Biden’s Visit, in Retrospect
Treaty with Saudi Arabia
Ahead of President Biden’s visit to Israel and the Middle East last month, we asked: “To what extent do you believe or not believe in President Biden’s ability to bring about a breakthrough on advancing a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia?” We found that the Jewish respondents were divided, with 45.5% believing in Biden’s capability to bring about such a breakthrough, and an identical share who demurred. Among Arab respondents, 35% believed that he could accomplish this, and 39% did not (the rest didn’t know).
With the conclusion of the visit, we asked: “Following President Biden’s visit to Israel, to what extent did the things that were said and agreed during the visit convince you that he has the capability to bring about a breakthrough in relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia?” The findings indicate disappointment: The deadlock in the Jewish sample was broken, and now a majority of 54% of Jews are not convinced that President Biden can bring about a breakthrough with Saudi Arabia, while only 37% believe he can. Among Arab respondents, 47% do not now believe that Biden can lead a breakthrough, while 36.5% think he can.
To what extent does President Biden have the capability to bring about a breakthrough in advancing a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia? (Jews and Arabs; %)
The Biden Administration’s commitment to ensuring Israel’s security in nuclear negotiations with Iran
Leading up to the Biden visit, we also asked last month: “To what extent do you trust or not trust the Biden administration to take Israel’s interests into account during its negotiations with Iran over the nuclear deal?” After the visit, we asked: “Following President Biden’s visit to Israel, to what extent did the things that were said and agreed during the visit convince you that the Biden administration is careful to take Israel’s security into account in its negotiations with Iran?” On this issue, there was a rise in the proportion of respondents who believe that the Biden administration is careful to take Israel’s security into account during negotiations with Iran, from 15% before the visit to 34% after among Jews, and from 20.5% to 26% among Arabs.
To what extent is the Biden administration careful to take Israel’s security into account during its negotiations with Iran? (Jews and Arabs; %)
On this issue, the differences between the political camps (among Jewish respondents) are very large. Of those who define themselves as on the Left, a majority of 56% were convinced after the visit that the Biden administration takes Israel’s security into account during negotiations with Iran; a large minority of those in the Center took the same view (41%); while on the Right, less than a third concurred (27.5%).
To what extent is the Biden administration careful to take Israel’s security into account during its negotiations with Iran? (Jews, by political orientation; %)
Overall, then, the Israel public thinks that the visit did not generate the hoped-for benefits regarding a breakthrough in relations with Saudi Arabia, but it did strengthen to some extent the belief that the Biden administration keeps Israel in mind during its negotiations with Iran.
Upcoming Elections
What influences your decision on which party to vote for?
The question of what influences Israelis in choosing which party to vote for is regularly debated, with some holding that it is the head of the party that matters and others that the party’s platform on various issues is the key. Thus, we asked: “Which of the following factors will most strongly influence your decision on which party to vote for at the upcoming elections?” The options given were the party’s platform on foreign policy and security; the party’s platform on issues of religion and state; the party’s platform on the economy and the high cost of living; the party’s platform on the climate crisis; and the identity of the party leader. We found that the party’s platform on the economy and the high cost of living is currently the number-one factor in deciding which party to vote for, while the identity of the party leader comes a distant second.
Factors most strongly influencing the decision on which party to vote for at the upcoming elections (total sample; %)
Remarkably, the same ranking order was found to apply in both the Jewish and Arab samples, as well as in all three political camps (among Jewish respondents). However, while only a minority of Jews (albeit a large minority) listed the party’s platform on the economy and the high cost of living as the most important factor (41%), a sizable majority of Arabs chose this response (59.5%). Another difference between the samples is that 27% of Jews reported that the main factor in their decision to vote for a particular party is the identity of the party leader, while only 10% of Arabs selected this option.
A breakdown of the Jewish respondents by age reveals that the party’s platform on the economy and the high cost of living is a much more important factor for younger age groups.
Breaking down the Jewish respondents by self-defined religiosity, we find that the party’s platform on the economy and the high cost of living ranks in second place among Haredi (22%) and national religious (25%) respondents, with first place awarded to the party’s platform on issues of religion and state (Haredim, 52%; national religious, 33%).
Another salient finding is the low share of respondents who selected the party’s platform on foreign policy and security as the main factor in deciding which party to vote for (11%), seemingly due to the lengthy recent period during which the security situation has been relatively calm. Presumably, however, if security threats increase, then this issue will return to the top of voters’ agendas.
The party leader or the list of candidates?
We have seen that the respondents report that the party leader is less important to them than the party’s economic platform, but we wondered whether the identity of the party leader is more important than the party’s list of candidates for the Knesset elections? The largest share of respondents (39%) cited the identity of the party leader as the sole or main factor influencing their decision on which party to vote for, while 36% said that the two factors are equally influential, and only 13% reported that the party’s list of candidates is the sole or main factor in their decision-making. The identity of the party leader is more important for Jewish respondents than for Arab respondents (43% and 22%, respectively).
What influences your decision on which party to vote for? (total sample; %)
A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation shows that the identity of the party leader is the most important factor for those on the Right (48%), while in the Center and on the Left the most frequent response was that the party leader and the party’s candidate list are equally important (42%).
What influences your decision on which party to vote for? (Jews, by political orientation; %)
What is the best method for choosing candidates for election to the Knesset?
The method preferred by the majority of the Israeli public (58%) for choosing a party’s list of candidates for Knesset elections is holding primaries of some kind. This is also the preferred method of the majority of voters for each party that entered the Knesset at the last elections, excepting two: Yisrael Beytenu (50% prefer primaries) and Yesh Atid (45%). Of course, these are both parties in which the candidate list is decided by the party leader. Across the total sample, only 11% of respondents were in favor of the leader selecting the list of candidates, and only the party selection committee method gained less support (7%). A quarter of respondents said that they don’t know what the best method is, indicating the low importance attributed by voters to how the candidate list is decided or to the range of possibilities that exist.
Which of the following methods do you think is best for choosing a party’s candidates for election to the Knesset? (total sample, by voting pattern at the last Knesset elections; %)
Voting Intentions
A comparison between the party that respondents voted for at last year’s Knesset elections and the party they intend to vote for at the upcoming elections shows that a large majority of those who voted for parties currently in the opposition intend to vote for the same party again (United Torah Judaism, 82%; Likud, 76%; Shas, 71%; Religious Zionism, 67%). Those who voted for the parties that form the current coalition are much less willing to vote the same way this time: Meretz, 52%; Yisrael Beytenu, 50%; Labor, 37%; Blue and White / New Hope, 33%; Yamina, 17% (the data about Yamina were collected before the new Zionist Spirit party was established). Yesh Atid is the exception among coalition parties, as 72% of its voters at the last elections say they will vote for it again this time.
Intend to vote at the upcoming elections for the same party they voted for at the previous elections (total sample, by party voted for at the last elections; %)
We analyzed the responses to the question about voting intentions together with respondents’ reports of how they voted at the last elections, and found that at the moment, around half of them will vote for the same party again. Approximately 10% will vote for a different party, but one that was in the coalition or the opposition alongside the party they voted for a year ago. Only 4% said they will vote for a different party which was on the other side of the coalition-opposition divide from the party they voted for at the last elections. A large segment of this group voted for Yamina last time, and reported that they will vote for parties in the right-wing bloc this time (mainly Likud and Religious Zionism). One-fifth of respondents (20%) said that they have not yet decided which party to vote for, and the remainder either said that they do not intend to vote or declined to answer the question.
Which party do you intend to vote for at the upcoming Knesset elections? (total sample; %)
We found that only a tiny minority (2%) of Jews who voted at the last elections do not intend to vote at the upcoming elections, while 21% of Arabs plan to stay away from the ballot box.
A breakdown by parties in the current coalition and opposition finds that while three-quarters (75%) of those who voted for opposition parties at the last elections intend to vote for the same party again and 9% will vote for another party currently in the opposition, less than half (45%) of voters for coalition parties will vote for the same party again, with 15% planning to vote for another party in the current coalition.
In terms of moving from one bloc to another, 9% of voters for parties in the current coalition reported that they will vote for an opposition party at the upcoming elections (most of these respondents voted Yamina), but less than 1% of voters for opposition parties said that they will cross the divide and vote for a party currently in the coalition. There is also a large difference between coalition and opposition parties in the percentage of undecided voters: One-quarter of coalition party voters have yet to decide which party to vote for at the upcoming elections, compared with just 13% of those who voted for parties in the opposition.
Which party do you intend to vote for at the upcoming Knesset elections? (Jews; %)
The July 2022 Israeli Voice Index was prepared by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone (to include groups that are under-represented on the internet) between July 25 and July 27, 2022, with 600 men and women interviewed in Hebrew and 150 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error was ±3.59% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by Midgam Research and Consulting Ltd. The full data file can be found at: Data Israel.