Most Israelis: an "Absolute Victory" to the War is Unlikely
War in Gaza Survey 11 (February 12–15, 2024)
Most Israelis think Palestinian terrorism will remain the same or increase if a Palestinian state were declared. A vast majority (81%) of Israelis think the likelihood of reform in the Palestinian Authority is low, while a majority of Israelis think absolute victory in Gaza is unlikely.
Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90
This eleventh flash survey on the war in Gaza was conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. Data collection was carried out between February 12–15, 2024, with 510 men and women interviewed via the internet and by telephone in Hebrew and 102 in Arabic. The maximum sampling error was ±4.04% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by the Lazar Research Institute headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar.
Topics covered in this report:
- Likelihood of achieving “absolute victory” in the war in Gaza
- Transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza residents
- What next for the northern front?
- Likelihood of a “reformed Palestinian Authority”
- For or against the establishment of a Palestinian state
- Impact on terrorism if a Palestinian state were to be founded
- Reaching a political agreement to end the war
- Downgrading of Israel’s credit rating by Moody’s and Israel’s economic situation
- Likelihood of a wave of public protests against the government and intention to participate in such protests
Recently, the prime minister has said that Israel is aiming to achieve “absolute victory” in the war in Gaza. We therefore asked our respondents what they think the likelihood is that the war will indeed conclude with such a victory for Israel. Overall, the majority rated this likelihood as low. This view is shared by the majority of both the Jewish and the Arab respondents, though the size of this majority is extremely small in the Jewish sample (51%, versus 42%) and very large in the Arab sample (77.5% versus 18%).
What is the likelihood of an "absolute victory" for Israel in the war in Gaza? (total sample; %)
A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that a majority of those on the Left and in the Center think there is only a low likelihood of an "absolute victory" for Israel (Left, 84%; Center, 63%). Of those who define themselves as on the Right, meanwhile, 55% rate the likelihood of an "absolute victory" as high.
Whether an absolute victory is expected or not, there remains the question of the provision of international aid to the residents of Gaza. We asked our respondents for their opinion regarding the idea that Israel should allow the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza residents at this time, via international bodies that are not linked to Hamas or to UNRWA. A majority of Jewish respondents (68%) oppose the transfer of humanitarian aid even under these conditions, while a large majority of Arab respondents support it (85%).
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that a majority of those on the Left support allowing international bodies to transfer humanitarian aid to Gaza (59%), while the Center is divided on this issue, and a large majority of those on the Right think that Israel should not allow the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza residents.
Do you support or oppose the idea that Israel should allow the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza residents at this time, with food and medicines being transferred by international bodies that are not linked to Hamas or to UNRWA? (%)
We asked: “Which of the following two possibilities will better ensure the security of residential localities in the north in the future and the return home of all the residents who were evacuated—an internationally mediated political agreement that distances Hezbollah from the border, or an all-out Israeli attack on Hezbollah forces in Lebanon?” Across the total sample, opinions are divided, with a slight preference for Israel carrying out an all-out attack (political agreement, 42%; attack, 46%). However, there are very large differences on this issue between Jews and Arabs: A (small) majority of Jews favor an all-out attack against Hezbollah (53%), while a large majority of Arabs (69%) support a political agreement.
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that a majority of those on the Left support a political agreement that distances Hezbollah from the border, a view held by around half of those in the Center. On the Right, however, a solid majority are in favor of an Israeli offensive.
Which option will better ensure the security of residential localities in the north in the future and the return home of all the residents who were evacuated? (Jewish sample; %)
We asked: “The US president has been talking about renewal of the Palestinian Authority with international aid as a condition for reaching a political agreement. In your opinion, what is the likelihood that in the near future, the Palestinian Authority will undergo a substantive reform that will enable it to effectively manage, in civilian and military terms, the areas currently under its control as well as the Gaza Strip?” Overall, a large majority of respondents believe that the likelihood of such a reform of the Palestinian Authority is low, a view that is shared by both Jews and Arabs.
Likelihood of reform of the Palestinian Authority (%)
Should Israel agree in principle to the establishment of a Palestinian state?
Following media reports of a forthcoming international “blitz” to advance the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state, we asked: “Do you support or oppose the idea that Israel should agree in principle to the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state?” Around two-thirds of Jewish respondents (63%) oppose this proposal, while a large majority of Arabs (73%) support it. A similar difference was found within the Jewish sample among the different political camps: A majority of those on the Left support Israel agreeing in principle to the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state (77%); the Center is divided on the issue, but slightly inclined toward opposition; and a majority on the Right are opposed to such a step (78%).
Support or oppose Israel agreeing to the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state (%)
There may be different reasons for opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state, but one of the most obvious is the fear of an increase in terrorism. We asked: “In your opinion, if a Palestinian state is established in the foreseeable future, how will this affect Palestinian terrorism against Israel?” Among Arab respondents, the most common response (though not a majority opinion) was that terrorism will cease if a Palestinian state is founded (41%). At the same time, it is worth noting the extremely large share of the Arab sample (35%) who selected the “don’t know” response to this question. Among Jews, the most common view is that terrorism will become even stronger (44%).
A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals considerable differences: On the Left, the majority (56%) think that terrorism will weaken but will not cease. The Center is divided into three almost equal segments, of those who believe that terrorism will become stronger, those who think it will remain the same, and those who think it will weaken but not cease. On the Right, by contrast, a clear majority (59.5%) think that if a Palestinian state is established, terrorism will become even stronger.
If a Palestinian state is established in the foreseeable future, how will this affect Palestinian terrorism against Israel? (%)
We segmented the responses regarding the level of support for the establishment of a Palestinian state by responses to two other questions: the likelihood of substantive reform to the Palestinian Authority, and the effect on terrorism of establishing a Palestinian state. As might be expected, we found a higher level of support for the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state among those who think there is a high likelihood of reform to the Palestinian Authority and among those who think that terrorism will weaken or cease if such a state is established.
Support or oppose Israel agreeing to the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state, by responses to selected questions (total sample; %)
We asked again (with some modifications) a question posed in January 2024, about support for a political agreement to end the war: “Would you support or oppose an agreement to end the war which includes the release of all the hostages, long-term military quiet with guarantees from the United States, and a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, in return for the release by Israel of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, an extended ceasefire, and agreement to the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state in the long term?”[1]
Whether due to changes in the wording of the question or to changes in the surrounding circumstances, the general trend is toward a greater degree of support for such an arrangement. In the Jewish sample, there is still a majority (55%) opposed to an agreement, but the share of those who would support it has risen from 29% to 37%. In the Arab sample, a majority of 77% (up from 69% last time) are in favor of an agreement, and only 9% are now opposed.
A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that, just like last time, a majority of those on the Left (albeit a slightly smaller majority this time) support a political agreement (74% now, 78% in January). The Center has shifted from 39% in favor last time to a majority of 56% now. And on the Right, while a majority are still opposed (69%), the share of supporters has risen from 14% to 22%).
Support or oppose a political agreement to end the war (%)
Israel’s economic situation
The Israeli public is divided into three almost equal segments in its assessment of Israel’s current economic situation: 29% rate it as good, 37% as so-so, and 33% as bad. Jewish respondents have a more positive view of the economy than Arab respondents (Jews: good, 30%; so-so, 38%; bad, 30.5%; Arabs: good, 24.5%; so-so, 28%; bad, 45%). A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that those on the Right have a much more positive assessment than those in the Center and on the Left.
Assessment of Israel’s economic situation today (%)
We asked: “In response to the decision by Moody’s to downgrade Israel’s credit rating, the prime minister said that Israel’s economy is very strong and its credit rating will be restored when we win the war. In your opinion, to what extent does this assessment by Netanyahu properly reflect reality?” Unsurprisingly, the majority of those on the Left and in the Center think that Netanyahu’s assessment does not reflect reality (Left, 75%; Center, 68%). By contrast, half of those on the Right (50%) consider his assessment to be realistic, while only 39% take the opposite view.
Expectations of a wave of public protests against the government
Many Israelis expect a wave of public protests to break out in the foreseeable future, whether they warmly anticipate or are fearful of such an outcome. We asked our respondents: “In recent weeks, the number of demonstrations against the government headed by Netanyahu has been growing. In your estimation, will this trend develop in the near future into widescale public protests against the government?”
Overall, a majority of respondents (60%) anticipate a wave of protests breaking out, while 30% do not foresee such an outcome on the horizon. On this issue there is almost no difference between the proportion of Jews (60%) and Arabs (64%) who anticipate an outbreak of public protests.
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that a huge majority of those on the Left expect there to be an outbreak of protests, as do around two-thirds of those in the Center and around half of those on the Right (which remains largely supportive of the government).
Think or are certain that widescale public protests against the government will break out in the near future (Jewish sample; %)
Despite the high proportion of respondents anticipating the outbreak of a wave of public protests, only a much smaller share think or are certain that they themselves would participate. As expected, those on the Left (in the Jewish sample) consider themselves most likely to take part if widespread public protests take place in the foreseeable future.
Think or are certain that they themselves would participate in public protests (%)
[1] The question asked last time referred to “an agreement with an Arab state such as Saudi Arabia,” and no mention was made of the release of all the hostages in Gaza, releasing large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, or an extended ceasefire. In addition, the word “demilitarized” was added to the question this time.