A Large Majority of Israelis Want Early Elections
War in Gaza Survey 10, January 2024
59% of Jewish Israelis oppose a deal that would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state with guarantees from the US and peace agreements with Arab states such as Saudi Arabia; when asked to choose, 51% of Israelis said they think the main goal of the war should be bringing the hostages home and 36% think it should be toppling Hamas; half of Israelis think the ICJ ruling, issuing temporary measures, to be harsh.
Dr. Gilad Noam, Israel's Deputy Attorney General at the ICJ Ruling, January 2024. Photo: Courtesy of the ICJ.
The survey was conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute between January 28–30, 2024, using a representative sample of 619 Jewish Israelis and 153 Arab Israelis.
Topics covered in this report:
- The national mood
- Israel’s success in ensuring the security of its citizens
- The main goal of the war
- The timing of investigations into the events of October 7
- The ruling by the International Court of Justice in The Hague
- The timing of the next Knesset elections
- The “day after”
In terms of optimism about both the future of Israel’s security and the future of democratic rule in Israel, there has been almost no change relative to last month. This month’s optimism scores are slightly lower than those found in November, but identical to October’s, and are higher than the average for the period of the protests during 2023, when optimism was at a low.
Among Jews, the Left and the Center are much less optimistic today than the Right about the future of democratic rule in Israel, with optimists constituting 26% of those on the Left, 34% in the Center, and 57% on the Right. Regarding the future of Israel’s national security, the pattern is similar, though with slightly higher optimism among those on the Left and in the Center than about the future of democratic rule, and slightly lower optimism on the Right (Left, 34%; Center, 37.5%; Right, 47%).
Optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel and about the future of national security, June 2022–January 2024 (total sample; %)
This month’s survey found that only a minority of respondents believe that the State of Israel is successfully ensuring the security of its citizens, as did a similar survey question in 2022. This share is much lower than those found in surveys conducted between 2019 and 2021, when the majority of Israelis said that the state was successfully ensuring the security of its citizens (though there was a sharp decline between 2020 and 2021). In other words, and somewhat surprisingly given the events of October 7 and the subsequent war in Gaza, the public’s assessment of Israel’s ability to provide security for its citizens has not really changed since 2022.
Think that the State of Israel is successfully ensuring the security of its citizens, 2019–2024 (total sample; %)
A breakdown of the total sample by nationality reveals that, as in the past, the share of Jews who think that the state successfully ensures the security of its citizens (42%) is considerably larger than the equivalent share of Arabs (24.5%).
At the same time, an analysis of the Jewish sample by political orientation uncovers large differences relative to the 2022 findings: In 2022, under the Bennett-Lapid government, the majority of those on the Left and in the Center said that the government was succeeding in protecting its citizens, while today, only a third take that view. By contrast, among respondents on the Right, only 30% felt that the state was providing security under the Bennett-Lapid government, while today, despite the events of October 7, this share has risen to almost half.
Breaking down the total sample by vote in the last Knesset elections reveals that among voters for three of the right-wing parties in the current coalition (Likud, Shas, and United Torah Judaism), the share of those who think that the State of Israel is successfully ensuring the security of its citizens has doubled since the summer of 2022, while among Religious Zionism voters the equivalent share has risen more moderately, by 11 percentage points. On the other hand, among voters for the National Unity party, which was a member of the previous government and is now a member of the current government, there has been a sizable decline in the proportion who think that Israel is taking care of its citizens’ security. Among all voters for parties currently in the opposition, there has been a fall in the share of respondents who take this view.
Think that the State of Israel is successfully ensuring the security of its citizens, 2022 and 2024 (total sample and Jewish sample; %)
*In the previous Knesset: Blue and White
**In the previous Knesset: Joint List (Hadash-Ta’al-Balad)
We asked: “Recently, it has been argued that there is a contradiction between Israel’s two war goals—toppling Hamas and bringing the hostages home. In your opinion, which of the two should be Israel’s main goal today?” Overall, around half our respondents (51%) think that bringing the hostages home should be the main goal, and around a third (36%) that the main goal should be toppling Hamas (13% selected the “don’t know” response).
There are large differences on this issue between Jews and Arabs: In the Jewish sample, there is only a small gap between the share of those who think that bringing home the hostages should be the main goal (47%) and those who prioritize toppling Hamas (42%). By contrast, among Arab respondents, there is a clear majority (69%) who rank the return of the hostages most highly, and only a tiny minority (8%) who prefer the goal of toppling Hamas (23% selected the “don’t know” response).
A breakdown by vote in the last elections reveals the contours of the major public disagreement on this issue: A very large majority of voters for Arab parties, as well as of voters for Labor, Yesh Atid, and National Unity, think that the main goal should be bringing the hostages home. By contrast, the most common response chosen by voters for Likud and Shas was that the main goal should be toppling Hamas, a view that is shared by a large majority of United Torah Judaism voters, and an even larger majority of Religious Zionism voters.
Of Israel’s two war goals – toppling Hamas and bringing the hostages home—what should be Israel’s main goal today? (total sample, by vote in the 2022 Knesset elections; %)
On this question, we found a large discrepancy in the Jewish sample between men and women: Just over one-half of men selected toppling Hamas as the main goal, while 40% preferred the goal of bringing back the hostages. Among women, the situation is reversed, with 53% saying that bringing back the hostages should be the main goal, and only one-third opting for the goal of toppling Hamas. In addition, a large majority of those on the Left and in the Center cited bringing back the hostages as their preferred main goal, while on the Right, the majority think that the main goal should be toppling Hamas.
Of Israel’s two war goals—toppling Hamas and bringing the hostages home—what should be Israel’s main goal today? (Jewish sample; %)
There is currently considerable public debate over the question of when investigations should begin into the events of October 7, which would also seek to apportion responsibility for them. Thus, the establishment by the IDF chief of general staff of a review committee attracted harsh criticism from certain politicians, and was also opposed by some sections of the public. Consequently, the committee’s work has been suspended for now. Similarly, according to reports in the media, the investigation begun by the State Comptroller’s Office drew criticism from the chief of staff. We therefore sought to discover the distribution of views in the public on these issues.
Suspending the internal review in the IDF: We asked: “The IDF chief of general staff has decided to suspend the work of the review committee he established to investigate the events of October 7. Do you support or oppose this decision?” In the total sample, opinions are split: 43% support this suspension, and 42% are against it. A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation, however, reveals that a majority of those on the Left (58%) oppose the decision to suspend the committee’s work. In the Center, the largest share of respondents oppose the chief of staff’s decision, though they do not constitute a majority, and the gap between the two groups is relatively small (46% against and 39% in favor). On the Right, meanwhile, the majority support this suspension (54%) and a minority are opposed to it (33%).
Support or oppose the decision of the IDF chief of general staff to suspend the work of the review committee (Jewish sample, by political orientation; %)
Investigation by the State Comptroller’s Office: We asked: “According to media reports, the IDF chief of general staff has said that the investigation by the State Comptroller’s Office into the events of October 7 with regard to the military leadership should be postponed, in order to allow the IDF to focus on the fighting. Do you support or oppose the chief of staff’s position on this issue?” A clear majority of 63% support the chief of staff’s position as reported in the media, that the state comptroller should delay his investigation, and only around one-quarter oppose it. Do you support or oppose the IDF chief of staff’s position that the State Comptroller’s Office should postpone its investigation into the military background for the events of October 7? (total sample; %)
A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that in all three political camps, there is a majority who support the chief of staff’s view that the state comptroller should postpone his investigation (Left, 74%; Center, 67%; Right, 71%).
Cross-tabulating the results in the total sample from these two questions reveals that a large majority of those who support the chief of staff’s decision to suspend the work of the IDF review committee also support his view that the State Comptroller’s Office should delay its investigation into the military aspects of the events surrounding October 7 (87%). By contrast, among those who oppose the chief of staff’s decision, views are divided: around half oppose his request for the state comptroller to postpone his inquiry, while 42% support it.
We asked: “In its ruling last week, the International Court of Justice in The Hague did not accept South Africa’s claims that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza and did not order a ceasefire, but it did issue a series of temporary orders requiring Israel to minimize harm to civilians and infrastructure in Gaza and to allow the entry of humanitarian aid. In your opinion, with regard to Israel, is this ruling lenient or harsh?”
Half of our Jewish respondents think that the ICJ ruling is harsh on Israel, while a minority (39%) think that it is lenient, and 11% selected the “don’t know” response. Among Arabs, the situation is different: Only 19% think that the verdict is harsh, while 46% think that it is lenient on Israel, and an especially high share of respondents chose the “don’t know” response (35%).
Was the ruling by the International Court of Justice in The Hague harsh or lenient with regard to Israel ? (Jewish and Arab samples; %)
A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation shows that on the Right, the majority of respondents (60%) believe that the ruling is harsh on Israel, while 31.5% think it is lenient. The Center is divided (46%, lenient; 44%, harsh), and on the Left, the majority (65%) hold that the ruling is lenient on Israel, and only around one-fifth (21%) that it is harsh.
Only a minority of our respondents currently think that the next Knesset elections should be held on their original date, in November 2026. A large majority (71%) believe that the elections should be brought forward, with 38% of the opinion that elections should be held when the war ends, and 33% that elections should be announced now and then held in around three months’ time, as the law requires in such cases.
When should the next Knesset elections be held? (total sample; %)
In the Jewish sample, the most common response was that elections should be held at the end of the war. In the Arab sample, meanwhile, the most common response was that elections should be held in around three months’ time, after declaring elections, in accordance with the law. A breakdown of Jewish respondents by political orientation reveals substantial differences: 71% of those on the Left would like elections to be declared immediately and held in three months’ time, a preference shared by 42% of those in the Center, and only 11% of those on the Right.
When should the next Knesset elections be held? (Jewish and Arab samples; %)
Breaking down the total sample by vote in the last Knesset elections finds only three parties for which the most commonly chosen response among voters was that elections should be held on their original date, in November 2026: United Torah Judaism (52%), Religious Zionism (51%), and Shas (46%). Among Likud voters, 48.5% are in favor of holding elections at the end of the war, and only 42% prefer holding them on their original date. However, it may well be that, unlike opposition party voters, the Likud voters are interested in early elections not in order to change the government, but to shore up the Right’s hold on power.
We asked: “Do you support or oppose the notion that as part of a deal to end the war—which will include long-term military quiet, guarantees from the United States, and a peace agreement with Arab states such as Saudi Arabia—Israel should agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state?” In the total sample, half the respondents oppose this proposal (51%), while around one-third (36%) support it. A breakdown by nationality reveals that a large majority of Jews are opposed (59%, versus 29% who are in favor), while among Arab interviewees the picture is reversed (69% support the proposal and 10% are opposed).
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation finds large differences once again: While a very large majority on the Left support the proposal (78%), an almost identical majority on the Right are opposed (79.5%), and in the Center the supporters and opponents are evenly balanced. Interestingly, a very large share of those in the Center selected the “don’t know” response (21%, compared with 9% on the Left and 7% on the Right).
Support the proposal that as part of a deal to end the war—which will include long-term military quiet, guarantees from the United States, and a peace agreement with Arab states such as Saudi Arabia – Israel should agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state (Jewish and Arab samples; %)
***
The January 2024 Israeli Voice Index was prepared by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone (to include groups that are under-represented on the internet) between January 28–30, 2024, with 619 men and women interviewed in Hebrew and 153 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error was ±3.59% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by the Dialogue Research and Polling Institute. The full data file can be found at: https://dataisrael.idi.org.il.