Otzma Yehudit's Exit from the Coalition: The First Domino to Fall?

Today, (January 19, 2025), three Otzma Yehudit ministers - Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yitzhak Wasserlauf, and Amichai Eliyahu - announced their resignation from the government and the withdrawal of their party from the coalition. This withdrawal decreases the coalition majority in Knesset to 62 MKs, thereby reducing the Prime Minister's leverage to politically maneuver.

Today (January 19, 2025), three Otzma Yehudit ministers (Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yitzhak Wasserlauf, and Amichai Eliyahu) announced their resignation from the government and the withdrawal of their party from the coalition. This resignation took place due to the firm opposition to the hostage deal approved by the government on January 17, 2025.

This withdrawal decreases the coalition majority in Knesset to 62 MKs, thereby reducing the Prime Minister's leverage to politically maneuver. However, will this withdrawal fundamentally undermine the stability of the government? It seems that it's too early to say. On the one hand, the fact that Gideon Saar's New Hope-The United Right party rejoined the coalition (six months after withdrawing in March 2024) allows the coalition to remain in power even without Otzma Yehudit. In addition, Otzma Yehudit's leader Itamar Ben-Gvir declared that his faction would not actively work to bring down the government, and even promised to consider rejoining the coalition if fighting resumes in Gaza after the first phase of the implementation of the ceasefire. Moreover, past experience shows that in most cases where parties have withdrawn from the coalition due to ideological disagreements, this has not led to the fall of the government and initiation of elections immediately.

On the other hand, the coalition faces a number of significant challenges in the weeks ahead. In addition to the anticipated struggle to implement the second phase of the hostage deal, the government must also legislate a Haredi conscription law in a manner that is acceptable to both the ultra-Orthodox parties and the coalition members who are unwilling to accept a toothless law that perpetuates Haredi exemption from IDF service. Such challenges may further undermine the coalition, and from this perspective, Otzma Yehudit's withdrawal may mark the first domino that falls on the way to the collapse of the government and early elections.

Looking to past experience, the table below presents prominent cases of factions that left the coalition due to ideological differences. It does not include cases in which ministers were dismissed by the prime minister. As can be seen, the majority of these exits came against a backdrop of foreign affairs/defense issues. Another salient issue behind parties leaving the coalition has been religion and state.

As stated, only a few of these resignations led directly to the end of the government and elections being brought forward. One notable such case was the departure, one after the other, of three small right-wing parties (Tzomet, Moledet, and Tehiya) from

the right-wing government led by Yitzhak Shamir, at the end of 1991 and the beginning of 1992. This left the coalition with only 59 MKs, and consequently the elections for the 13th Knesset were brought forward.

Another well-known case was the rapid disintegration of Ehud Barak’s government in 2000. The resignation from the government of Meretz, and subsequently of Mafdal, Yisrael Ba’Aliya, and Shas, left the coalition without a majority in the Knesset. Subsequently, special direct elections for the prime minister were held, in which Barak was roundly defeated by the Likud candidate, Ariel Sharon.

There are several more borderline cases. For example, it is possible that the resignation of the Labor party from Ariel Sharon’s second government in November 2005 accelerated the prime minister’s decision to establish Kadima and call early elections, but it is also possible that this would have happened even without Labor leaving. Similarly, Yisrael Beytenu’s exit from the government toward the end of 2018 did not directly lead to the elections being brought forward, but it was one of the catalysts for it.

Significant previous cases of factions exiting the governing coalition