As the National Unity Party Leaves the Government, What Can We Learn from Similar Exits in the Past?
The head of the National Unity party, Benny Gantz, announced that his party would be leaving the coalition. This exit, together with the resignation from the government of New Hope headed by Gideon Sa’ar around two months ago, restores the coalition to its original size of 64 MKs and six factions.
Photo by Miriam Alster/Flash90
Yesterday, the head of the National Unity party, Benny Gantz, announced that his party would be leaving the coalition. This exit, together with the resignation from the government of New Hope headed by Gideon Sa’ar (now called the New Hope – The United Right party) around two months ago, restores the coalition to its original size of 64 MKs and six factions (parliamentary groups). It also makes it a homogeneous coalition once again, or as it is sometimes referred to, “a full-on right-wing government.”
The departure of the National Unity party has many consequences, including for the prime minister’s room for political maneuvering, for Israel’s wartime social solidarity, and for the international legitimacy of the government. However, is it also expected to undermine the government’s stability and create a dynamic that will lead to early elections? It would appear to be too soon to say, at this stage. Past experience tells us that in most cases in which factions have left the coalition over ideological differences, this has not immediately led to early elections being called.
The table below presents prominent cases of factions that left the coalition due to ideological differences. It does not include cases in which ministers were dismissed by the prime minister. As can be seen, the majority of these exits came against a backdrop of foreign affairs/defense issues. Another salient issue behind parties leaving the coalition has been religion and state. As stated, only a few of these resignations led directly to the end of the government and elections being brought forward.
One notable such case was the departure, one after the other, of three small right-wing parties (Tzomet, Moledet, and Tehiya) from the right-wing government led by Yitzhak Shamir, at the end of 1991 and the beginning of 1992. This left the coalition with only 59 MKs, and consequently the elections for the 13th Knesset were brought forward.
Another well-known case was the rapid disintegration of Ehud Barak’s government in 2000. The resignation from the government of Meretz, and subsequently of NRP, Yisrael Ba’Aliya, and Shas, left the coalition without a majority in the Knesset. Subsequently, special direct elections for the prime minister were held, in which Barak was roundly defeated by the Likud candidate, Ariel Sharon.
There are several more borderline cases. For example, it is possible that the resignation of the Labor party from Ariel Sharon’s second government in November 2005 accelerated the prime minister’s decision to establish Kadima and call early elections, but it is also possible that this would have happened even without Labor leaving. Similarly, Yisrael Beiteinu’s exit from the government toward the end of 2018 did not directly lead to the elections being brought forward, but it was one of the catalysts for it.
Significant previous cases of factions exiting the governing coalition