70% of Jewish Israelis: A Second Trump is Preferable for Israel’s Interests
When it comes to the their country's interests, Israelis increasingly think that Donald Trump is the preferable US presidential candidate.
Main Findings
* This month saw a further decline in the rate of those who are optimistic about the future of democratic governance in Israel. At the same time, there was another rise in the rate of those who are optimistic about its national security.
* Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Day is now a sectorial day of mourning and soul-searching for less than half of the Israeli public. It is seen as such a day by a majority only among the secular and nonreligious-traditional groups, and by the political center and left. On the right, however, this is only a minority position. Among the Arabs only a minority regard it as a day of mourning and soul-searching.
* When assessing the attitude of the entire public toward this day, the large majority of all the samples say that it is now a day of mourning and soul-searching only for small numbers of people (about one-fourth of the population or even less).
* The prevailing assessment is that the distance between the positions of the left and the right is now greater than in the days that preceded Yitzhak Rabin’s murder.
* For the Israeli Jewish public, Trump is the preferred U.S. presidential candidate. At least one of the reasons is that if Biden is elected, the prevailing assessment is that U.S.-Israeli relations will weaken while relations between Washington and the Palestinians will strengthen.
* About three-fourths of the Israelis consider that the agreements recently signed with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan have improved Israel’s regional strategic situation.
* The widespread opinion among the Jews is that the signing of these agreements will not alter the chances of reaching an agreement with the Palestinians. Among the Arabs the widespread position is that it will reduce those chances.
* In light of the signing of the Israel-Sudan agreement, about two-thirds of the entire public favors sending the illegal Sudanese immigrants in Israel back to Sudan even if it is done against their will.
The National Mood
Since April 2020 there has been a slow but steady decline in the degree of optimism about the future of Israeli democracy. At the same time, apparently influenced by the recent signing of the diplomatic agreements with three of the Muslim countries of the region, a trend of a moderate rise in optimism about the future of national security continues. As a result of these inverse trends, the gap between the rate of optimists about the future of Israeli democracy and the rate of optimists about the future of national security is – exactly as in April this year – the largest since these measurements began a year and a half ago.
Optimistic about the future of Israeli democracy and about the future of national security, April 2019-October 2020 (%, entire sample)
25 Years since the Murder of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin
Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Day has become a sectorial, not nationwide observance. Out of the entire sample, only 47% responded that for them it is a day of mourning and soul-searching, while 44% responded that for them it has such a character only to a small extent or not at all (9% did not know).
The disparity between Jews and Arabs on this issue is considerable: among the Jews 50% of interviewees said that for them it is a day of mourning and soul-searching compared to only 36% of the Arab sample.
A segmentation of the responses by self-placement on the Haredi-secular spectrum (Jews) revealed that only among the nonreligious-traditional and secular groups does the majority say this day is currently one of mourning and self-searching for them. Among the Haredi, religious, and religious-traditional groups only a minority viewed it personally as such.
Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Day is for me a day of mourning and soul-searching (%, Jews, by religiosity)
A segmentation by political camps (Jews) shows that while Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Day is a day of mourning and soul-searching for the majority of the left and the center, it is not for the majority of the right.
Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Day is for me a day of mourning and soul-searching (%, Jews, by political camp)
The assessment regarding the importance of the day for the entire public is even further diminishing: in the entire sample only 18% now consider that in the eyes of the majority or all of the public, Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Day is a day of mourning and soul-searching. Conversely, 43% think it has that character only for a quarter of the public or even less.
What portion of the Israeli public now regards Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Day as a general day of mourning and soul-searching? (%, entire sample)
This diminution can perhaps be explained against the backdrop of the prevailing assessment of the large distances now existing between the positions of the Israeli political camps (which could perhaps also explain the decline in optimism about the future of Israel’s democracy): the highest rate (41%) estimates that the distance between the positions of the left and the right is now larger than in the days that preceded Rabin’s assassination.
The distance between the positions of the left and the right in Israel is now: (%, entire sample)
Somewhat surprisingly, no real difference was found in perceptions of the issue between the three political camps. Nor did a segmentation by self-placement on the Haredi-secular spectrum yield disparate findings in particular, though the secular believe the differences between left and right are larger today than in the days preceding Rabin’s murder a little more than the other groups think so. However, a certain disparity was found according to age: the peception that the ideological distance between the left and the right has grown since the mid-1990s is more common among the older age groups than among the younger ones, who naturally lack a historical perspective on this matter.
The distance between the positions of the left and the right in Israel is now: (%, Jews, by age):
The U.S. Elections
The Israeli Jewish public unequivocally prefers that Donald Trump, the candidate of the Republican Party and the serving president, will win the imminent elections, with the criterion being Israel’s interests. The Arab public, for its part, is divided between the preference for Biden and for Trump.
From the standpoint of Israel’s interests, who, in your opinion, is the preferable candidate in the imminent U.S. presidential elections—Donald Trump (Republican Party) or Joe Biden (Democratic Party)? (%, Jews and Arabs)
A segmentation by political camps (Jews) shows that the left is divided on this issue while the center and the right overwhelmingly favor Trump’s candidacy.
From the standpoint of Israel’s interests, who, in your opinion, is the preferable candidate in the imminent U.S. presidential elections – Donald Trump (Republican Party) or Joe Biden (Democratic Party)? (%, Jews by political camp)
Presumably this pronounced preference among the Jewish public for Trump to keep serving stems to a large extent from the assessment that Biden’s election would weaken U.S.-Israeli relations and strengthen the relationship between Washington and the Palestinians.
And if Biden wins the race for the presidency, how will it affect U.S.-Palestinian relations? (%, Jews and Arabs)
And if Biden wins the race for the presidency, how will it affect U.S.-Israeli relations? (%, Jews and Arabs)
A cross-checking between the question about the preferred candidate and the question about the effect on the relations with Israel shows that among those who prefer Trump, the majority (54.4%) thinks that if Biden is elected the relations between the two countries will weaken. Among those who prefer Biden, however, the majority considers that if he is elected the relations will not change.
The Agreements with Muslim Countries of the Region
A large majority says the recent signing of the agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan has changed Israel’s regional strategic status for the better. The majority on that issue crosses political camps.
In your opinion, do these agreements change or not change Israel’s regional strategic status for the better? (%, entire sample)
Among the Jews the prevailing assessment is that the signing of these agreements will not alter the chances of reaching an agreement with the Palestinians. Among the Arabs the prevailing assessment is that these agreements will reduce the chances of arriving at an agreement with them.
How, in your opinion, will the signing of these agreements and others affect the chances of reaching an agreement with the Palestinians as well? (%, Jews and Arabs)
About two-thirds (64%) of the respondents think or are sure that the illegal Sudanese immigrants in Israel should be sent back to Sudan even if it is done against their will. A segmentation by political camps (Jewish sample) shows that on the left there is no majority here while in the center and on the right there is. Among the Jews the support for returning the illegal Sudanese immigrants is considerably higher than among the Arabs (69% vs. 44%).
In the wake of the agreement recently signed with Sudan, should Israel send the illegal Sudanese immigrants back to Sudan even if it is done against their will? (%, Jews, by political camp)
To Emigrate or to Stay?
Against the backdrop of growing civil discontent in Israel, we wanted to know whether the possibility of immigrating to another country has become more popular. Indeed, a large majority of the Israeli public (almost two-thirds) still prefers to live in Israel, but the rate of those interested in emigrating is considerably higher at present than in previous measurements.
If you had the opportunity to receive American citizenship or citizenship of another Western country, would you prefer to move and live there or would you prefer to stay and live in Israel? (%, entire sample, by years)
A segmentation of the Jewish public by political camps points to an increase in all the camps in the rate of those who would be interested in emigrating compared to 2019, but the rise is especially pronounced among those affiliating with the left-wing camp. More than a third from those who belong to the left-wing camp answered that they would prefer to live in one of the Western countries and not in Israel.
Would prefer to live in the United States or another Western country, by political camp (%, Jews, 2017-2020)
The Israeli Voice Index for October 2020 was prepared by the Guttman Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research of the Israel Democracy Institute. In the survey, which was conducted on the internet and by telephone (supplements of groups that are not sufficiently represented on the network) from October 27 to 29, 2020, 611 men and women were interviewed in Hebrew and 150 in Arabic, constituting a representative national sample of the entire adult population of Israel aged 18 and older. The maximum sampling error for the entire sample was 3.7%± at a confidence level of 95%. The fieldwork was done by the Midgam Institute. For the full data file see Data Israel.