The Majority of Israelis Pessimistic about Security in Foreseeable Future
The Israeli Voice Index for March 2022 focused on Israeli’s security in wake of recent terror attacks and found that the majority of both Jewish and Arab Israelis are pessimistic about Israel’s security situation in the foreseeable future.
Main Findings
* Against the backdrop of the recent wave of terror attacks, this month’s survey found a large drop in optimism about the future of national security in Israel. Confidence in the future of democratic rule has remained stable.
* On the Left, optimism about the future of national security is not high, but is still more than twice as strong as on the Right. Men are more optimistic than women, in both the Jewish and Arab publics.
* The findings indicate a low sense of personal security across the board, albeit lower among Arab respondents than Jewish respondents. Women have a lower sense of personal security than men, in both sectors.
* Trust in Minister of Internal Security Omer Bar-Lev is very low, among both Arabs and Jews. In the Jewish sample, trust in Bar-Lev is considerably higher on the Left than in the Center and on the Right.
* Unsurprisingly, trust in the Israel Security Agency (“Shin Bet”) is higher among Jews than among Arabs, but even among Jews, particularly those on the Right, it is not very high.
* The vast majority of Arab respondents think that only a minority of the Arab public support terror attacks like those that have taken place in the last two weeks. The equivalent share is larger among Jews, though still less than half, but there are large differences between political camps: On the Left and in the Center, the majority believe that only a minority of Arab citizens of Israel support terror attacks, but a plurality of those on the Right believe that a majority of Arabs support such attacks.
* Regarding revenge attacks by Jews, the majority of Jews and a plurality of Arabs (more than one-third) believe that these are supported by only a minority of Jewish citizens.
* A large majority of the Jewish public think that sentences handed down by the courts to perpetrators of terror attacks are too lenient. Among Arabs, the distribution of opinions is more even, with the largest share holding that the sentences are appropriate.
* Among Jews, there has been a marked increase in support for the notion that Jews and Arabs in Israel should live separately, with a clear majority now in favor. Among Arabs, the situation has remained stable for years, and only a minority support living separately.
* Among Arab respondents, this month’s survey found a decline in the size of the majority who hold that it is possible for an Arab citizen of Israel to feel part of the Palestinian people and also be a loyal Israeli citizen. Among Jews, a minority agree with this statement, and the size of this minority has fallen.
* The majority of Arab respondents believe that the Arab leadership acts determinedly against violence by Arabs toward Jews, while an even larger majority of Jewish respondents think the opposite.
The National Mood
This month’s survey found a very sharp decline in optimism regarding the future of Israel’s national security, with the share of optimists now at its lowest since we began measuring in April 2019 – just 29%, far lower than the equivalent share during other waves of terror attacks, and lower even than during Operation Guardian of the Walls and the conflicts in mixed cities in May 2021.
By contrast, the proportion of respondents who are optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel has remained stable over recent months (44%), supporting our interpretation from last month that the Bennett-Lapid government is managing to create a certain level of stability in the political sphere, despite the frequent crises it faces.
Optimistic about the future of Israeli democracy and about the future of national security, April 2019–March 2022 (total sample; %)
Some 31% of Jewish respondents said they are optimistic about the future of national security, compared with just 21% of Arab respondents. Particularly noteworthy was the finding that in the Jewish sample, those who identify with the Left are more optimistic than those who identify with the Center or Right.
Optimistic about the future of national security, by political orientation (Jewish sample; %)
We analyzed optimism about the future of national by sex, and found considerable differences between men and women as well as between Jews and Arabs. Jews are more optimistic than Arabs, and men are more optimistic than women in both sectors.
| Optimistic about the future of national security (%) | Jews | Arabs |
| Men | 38 | 28 |
| Women | 23 | 15 |
In the Jewish sample, we also found differences in optimism about the future of national security between age groups, with older respondents more optimistic than younger respondents. In the Arab sample, there were no differences according to this variable.
Optimistic about the future of national security, by age (Jewish sample; %)
Sense of Personal Security
No Personal Security
Most of the respondents, both Jewish and Arab, reported a complete lack or a very low level of personal security. The share of Arabs who feel this way (83%) is higher than the share of Jews (63.5%).
What degree of personal security do you and your family currently feel you have? (total sample; %)
More women than men report a lack of personal security (none at all/fairly small degree), with the difference noticeable in both the Jewish public (74% of women compared with 54% of men) and the Arab public (87% of women compared with 78% of men).
In the Jewish sample, this sense of a lack of security is common to all groups on the Haredi-secular spectrum, though higher proportions of Haredi and traditional religious respondents reported a lack of personal security (76%), compared with only around one-half (53%) of secular respondents.
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that a large majority of those on the Right report a lack of personal security (71%), compared with around one-half of those in the Center (54%) and a minority of those on the Left (39%).
Trust in Those Responsible for Security
Minister of Internal Security
The low levels of optimism about the future of national security and the sense of a lack of personal security are accompanied by low levels of trust in those who are responsible for national security.
Trust is particularly low in Minister of Internal Security Omer Bar-Lev, with only 18% of the total sample expressing a fairly large or very large degree of trust in him (Jews, 19%; Arabs, 14%). A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation finds that only a minority in each of the three camps has trust in the minister, though there are considerable differences in the size of these minorities (Left, 40%; Center, 33%; Right, 11%).
Have a fairly large or very large degree of trust in Minister of Internal Security Omer Bar-Lev, by political orientation (Jewish sample; %)
Here, too, we found sizable differences between men and women, with the women – both Jewish and Arab – expressing less trust in the minister.
| Have trust in Minister of Internal Security Omer Bar-Lev (%) | Jews | Arabs |
| Men | 24 | 19 |
| Women | 14 | 10 |
The Israeli Security Agency (“Shin Bet”)
This is the first time that we have examined public trust in the Israeli Security Agency (ISA, commonly referred to as the “Shin Bet”), and thus we have no previous reference point. Of the total sample, 67% have a fairly large or very large degree of trust in the ISA (Jews, 75%; Arabs, 27%). In the Jewish sample, the size of the majority varies by political orientation (Left, 80%; Center, 81%; Right, 73%).
Trust in the Israeli Security Agency (Jewish sample and Arab sample; %)
Support for Terror Attacks and Revenge Attacks
We wanted to find out the public’s estimation of the level of support in the Arab public for terror attacks. Unsurprisingly, we found sizable differences between the estimations given by Jewish and Arab respondents, with a large majority of Arabs (77%) holding that only a minority support such attacks. We were, however, surprised by the findings in the Jewish sample: In contrast with data that have been published on this issue in recent days, the largest share of the Jewish respondents, though less than half (40%), believe that only a minority of Arabs support terror attacks. Less than one-third of Jewish respondents think that a majority of the Arab public supports terror.
In your opinion, what share of the Arab public in Israel supports terror attacks against Jews, such as those that have taken place in the last two weeks? (Jewish sample and Arab sample; %)
A breakdown of Jewish respondents by political orientation finds that on the Left and in the Center, the majority believe that only a minority of Arab citizens of Israel support terror attacks. On the right, a plurality (though not a majority) think that a majority of Arabs support terror.
In your opinion, what share of the Arab public in Israel supports terror attacks against Jews, such as those that have taken place in the last two weeks? By political orientation (Jewish sample; %)
And what about support among Jews for revenge attacks against Arabs following terror attacks? The majority of Jewish respondents (58.5%) estimate that only a minority of Jews support revenge attacks, while a plurality of Arab respondents (slightly more than one-third) hold the same opinion. It appears that Arabs attribute bad intentions to Jews to a lesser extent than do Jews to Arabs. Yet in both cases, it is a commonly held view that the majority of those on the other side do not wish to harm the other group.
In your opinion, what share of the Jewish public in Israel supports revenge attacks against Arabs? (Jewish sample and Arab sample; %)
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that the share of those on the Left who believe that only a minority of Jews support revenge attacks is larger than the equivalent shares in the Center and on the Right.
In your opinion, what share of the Jewish public in Israel supports revenge attacks against Arabs? By political orientation (Jewish sample; %)
Court Sentences for Perpetrators of Terror Attacks
It is sometimes claimed that the sentences handed down by the courts to those who carry out terror attacks are too lenient. In the Arab sample, there is not a clearly dominant opinion as to whether sentences are “too lenient,” “appropriate,” or “too severe,” though there is a slight preference for describing them as appropriate. In the Jewish sample, however, we found a large majority who hold that the sentences handed down by courts are too lenient.
Sentences handed down by courts to those who carry out terror attacks are: (Jewish sample and Arab sample; %)
A breakdown by political orientation finds that even on the Left, the majority believe that sentences are too lenient (62%), with even larger majorities in the Center and on the Right (81% and 91%, respectively).
Ethical Considerations in the Fight Against Terror
We asked: Do you agree or disagree that in the struggle against terror there is no room for ethical considerations, and any means can be used to prevent attacks? In a similar vein to the consensus that sentences for terrorists are too lenient, a very large sample of the Jewish sample (78%) agree that when it comes to fighting terror, there is no place for ethical considerations and all means are valid for preventing attacks, while only a minority disagree (19%). This is a marked increase compared to our findings in 2018, when only 38.5% agreed that ethical considerations are irrelevant in the struggle against terror.
Do you agree or disagree that in the struggle against terror there is no room for ethical considerations, and any means can be used to prevent attacks? (Jewish sample; %)
Breaking down responses by political orientation reveals that a large majority of those on the Right (85%) and in the Center (75%) agree that there is no room for ethical considerations in the fight against terror, compared with around one-half of those on the Left (51.5%). A breakdown by voting pattern in the last Knesset elections shows that only among voters for Labor and Meretz is there a minority who agree with this statement, compared with a majority among voters for all other parties.
Agree that in the struggle against terror there is no room for ethical considerations, and any means can be used to prevent attacks (Jewish sample; %)
Jewish-Arab Relations
“It would be better if Jews and Arabs in Israel were to live separately from one another.”
A majority of Jewish respondents (59%) now agree that it would be better for the two populations, Jewish and Arab, to live apart. This represents a sharp rise, of 14 percentage points, relative to April 2021. Among Arab respondents, there has been almost no change in the size of the small majority who agree with this statement. In other words, most Jews today support the idea of separation, compared with a steady and small minority of Arabs who agree.
Agree that it would be better if Jews and Arabs were to live separately (Jewish sample and Arab sample; %)
A breakdown of the Jewish sample reveals internal differences on this question: More than two-thirds of those on the Right support living separately, compared with a little less than half of those in the Center, and only around one-third of those on the Left. Sizable differences were also found by religiosity: Just under half of secular respondents agree that Jews and Arabs should live separately, compared with around two-thirds of the traditional and national religious, and an even larger majority of Haredim. There were also differences by age and sex, with younger respondents and women more supportive of separation than older respondents and men.
Agree that it would be better if Jews and Arabs were to live separately (March 2022, Jewish sample; %)
| Political orientation | Left | 32 |
| Center | 46 | |
| Right | 69 | |
| Religiosity | Haredi | 79 |
| National religious | 67 | |
| Traditional religious | 73 | |
| Traditional non-religious | 62 | |
| Secular | 46 | |
| Age | Under 35 | 65 |
| 35–54 | 59 | |
| 55+ | 52 | |
| Sex | Men | 54 |
| Women | 64 |
In the Arab sample, differences on the question of separation were found between Ra’am voters and voters for the Joint List: Around one-third (34%) of Joint List voters support living separately, compared with just one-fifth (20%) of Ra’am voters. It is worth noting that in both measurements taken in 2021, no differences were found between voters for these two parties on this issue.
“Most Arab citizens of Israel want to integrate into Israeli society and be part of it.”
The current survey found a drop in the share of Arab respondents who think that most Arab citizens of Israel want to integrate into Israeli society and be part of it (from 80% in 2021 to 73% now). By contrast, there has been almost no change in the Jewish public, and around half continue to agree with this statement.
Agree that most Arab citizens of Israel want to integrate into Israeli society and be part of it (Jewish sample and Arab sample; %)
As expected, there are considerable differences in the views of different groups within the Jewish sample. A large majority (83%) of those on the Left, and two-thirds of those in the Center, agree that most Arab citizens of Israel want to integrate into Israeli society and be part of it, compared with a minority of those on the Right (42%). A breakdown by religiosity reveals that two-thirds of secular respondents agree with the statement, compared with less than half of traditional and national religious respondents, and less than one-third of Haredim. Here we found differences by age, with only a minority of younger respondents (aged under 35) holding that most Arabs want to be part of Israeli society, compared with around half of those aged 35–54, and a majority of older respondents (aged 55 and above).
Agree that most Arab citizens of Israel want to integrate into Israeli society and be part of it (March 2022, Jewish sample; %)
| Political orientation | Left | 83 |
| Center | 67 | |
| Right | 42 | |
| Religiosity | Haredi | 29 |
| National religious | 42.5 | |
| Traditional religious | 49 | |
| Traditional non-religious | 48 | |
| Secular | 65 | |
| Age | Under 35 | 43 |
| 35–54 | 53 | |
| 55+ | 63.5 |
In the Arab sample, we found differences between respondents who voted for Ra’am at the last elections and those who voted for the Joint List: Less than two-thirds (62%) of Joint List voters agree that most Arab citizens of Israel want to integrate into Israeli society and be part of it, whereas this view is held by an overwhelming majority of Ra’am voters (85%).
Is it possible for an Arab citizen of Israel who feels part of the Palestinian people to also be a loyal citizen of the State of Israel?
Only 28% of Jewish respondents believe that an Arab Israeli can feel part of the Palestinian people while also being a loyal citizen of the State of Israel, the lowest share recorded in response to this question since we started asking it, and a drop of 10 percentage points since April 2021. This is in contrast to the majority of Arab respondents (63%) who think that it is possible to feel part of the Palestinian people and also be a loyal Israeli citizen—a similar figure to last year’s findings. However, the results taken over time show that there has also been some erosion in the share of the Arab public who believe that this kind of dual identity is possible.
Think or are sure that it is possible for an Arab citizen of Israel who feels part of the Palestinian people to also be a loyal citizen of the State of Israel (Jewish sample and Arab sample; %)
Breaking down responses to this question by voting pattern at the last Knesset elections reveals that the majority of voters for left-wing parties (Labor and Meretz) and Arab parties (Ra’am and the Joint List) agree that it is possible to feel part of the Palestinian people while also being a loyal Israeli citizen. This view is shared by half of Yesh Atid voters, and by only a minority of voters for all other parties.
Think or are sure that it is possible for an Arab citizen of Israel who feels part of the Palestinian people to also be a loyal citizen of the State of Israel, by voting pattern (total sample; %)
A breakdown of the Jewish sample by religiosity shows that in each group there is a minority who hold that such a dual identity is possible, while the greatest drop in the share of those who believe in this possibility was found among the Haredim.
Young Arabs (under 35) are less in agreement than the older age groups that it is possible to feel part of the Palestinian people and also be a loyal citizen of the State of Israel. Moreover, the share of this younger age cohort who hold this view has declined since the previous measurement taken, unlike the other two age groups.
Think or are sure that it is possible for an Arab citizen of Israel who feels part of the Palestinian people to also be a loyal citizen of the State of Israel (Arab sample; %)
The conviction with which the Arab leadership condemns violence by Arabs toward Jews
The majority of Arab respondents believe that the Arab leadership acts determinedly against violence by Arabs toward Jews, while an even larger majority of Jewish respondents think the opposite. Comparisons with the previous measurement, taken after the events of May 2021, show that there has been a modest rise in the share of the Jewish public who hold that the Arab leadership acts determinedly against violence by Arabs toward Jews. By contrast, the rise among Arab respondents has been considerable (especially among Ra’am voters), up from 44% in August 2021 to 60.5% now.
Agree that the Arab leadership acts determinedly against violence by Arabs toward Jews (Jewish sample and Arab sample; %)
The March 2022 Israeli Voice Index was prepared by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone (to include groups that are under-represented on the internet) between March 29 and April 1, 2022, with 605 men and women interviewed in Hebrew and 156 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error was ±3.59% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by Midgam Research and Consulting Ltd. The full data file can be found at: Data Israel.