39% of Israelis Do Not Trust the Purity of the Knesset Elections
The Israeli Voice Index finds that while 56% of Israelis expressed trust in the upcoming election, 39% said they question if the results “precisely reflect how the public voted.”
- Once again, this month saw a continuation in the decline of the share of Israeli public who are optimistic about the future of Israel’s national security, and these no longer constitute a majority of the sample. Regarding the future of democratic rule in Israel, there has been almost no change in the levels of optimism over the last five months, though only just over one-third of respondents are optimistic. In both areas, Arab respondents are less optimistic than their Jewish counterparts.
- A large proportion of respondents do not trust in the purity of the elections; that is, they think that the results that will be published will not accurately reflect how the public actually voted at the ballot box.
- On another topic we asked about ahead of the elections: A majority of Arab respondents agree that the government formed after the elections should attempt to reach a two-state solution with the Palestinians, a view held by only a minority of Jews. In both samples, the share of those who agree that this issue demands major attention has dropped significantly.
- There has been a clear increase in the proportion of respondents who believe that, if a solution is not found to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict soon, then a third Intifada will break out in the occupied territories.
- A small majority of Jews, compared with just a small minority of Arabs, awarded the security forces a good grade for their handling of the recent series of terror attacks.
- There was a rise in the share of Jewish respondents who agree that Israel should carry out a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American agreement, which is much higher than the equivalent share among Arab respondents. In the Jewish sample, a majority of those on the Right, around half of those in the Center, and a large majority of those on the Left support attacking without American consent.
- Around half of all respondents agreed that the support expressed by the heads of Israel’s defense agencies for the natural gas treaty with Lebanon was also influenced by political considerations.
It appears that the recent series of terror attacks has damaged the optimistic outlook about the future of Israel’s national security, with the share of optimists having fallen over the last two months from a majority of 52% in August to just 43% in October. There is a large difference on this issue between Jewish and Arab interviewees, with 45% of Jews saying they are optimistic, compared with just 30% of Arabs.
Likewise, the share of those optimistic about the future of democratic in rule in Israel, which has remained stable since June (with an average of 36.8% over the last five months) is lower than the share of optimists about national security. As in the past, Jews are more optimistic than Arabs about the future of democracy, but optimists are still in a minority among both populations (38% and 30%, respectively).
Optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel and about the future of national security, April 2019–October 2022 (total sample; %)
A breakdown of responses by political orientation (Jews) reveals relatively small differences regarding the future of national security: Around half of those on the Left and slightly more of those in the Center are optimistic, while the share on the Right is smaller but still in the same ballpark. On the other hand, when it comes to the future of democratic rule in Israel, the differences between the camps are larger, though in all three less than half the respondents are optimistic: On the Left, optimists constitute only a small minority; in the Center, around one-third; and on the Right, just under half. In other words, the Left is much more optimistic about security than about democracy, while on the Right, there are similar levels of optimism regarding both.
Optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel and about the future of national security, October 2022 (Jews, by political orientation; %)
Purity of the elections
The data from this month’s survey indicate that a worryingly large proportion of the Israeli public (39%) do not have trust that the election results published will accurately reflect how the public actually voted at the ballot box. This is the second largest share we have found since we began asking this question in 2019. That is, the steps taken by the Central Election Committee at the last elections to increase the public’s trust in the election results, which according to surveys calmed the fears evoked by the previous two election rounds, would seem not to be sufficient today to overcome the claims being made by certain politicians that if they do not win, it will be due to interference with the results rather than to the will of the people.
Have little or no trust in the purity of the elections (total sample; %)
Breaking down the findings by nationality (Jews and Arabs) reveals that Jews have significantly greater trust in the purity of the elections than do Arabs—according to the current survey, 36% of Jews do not trust the results, compared with a majority of 51.5% of Arabs.
Do not trust in the purity of the elections (Jews and Arabs; %)
A breakdown by religiosity (Jews) did not find major differences among the different groups this time, though the proportion of those without trust is highest among traditional Jews (Haredi, 35.5%; national religious, 34%; traditional religious, 41%; traditional non-religious, 38.5%; secular, 34%). The differences between political camps (Jews) are also small: 32% of those on the Left have little or no trust in the accuracy of the published election results, as do 34% of those in the Center and 38% of those on the Right.
Do not trust in the purity of the elections (Jews, by religiosity; %)
Two-state solution
Given the recent renewed interest in the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the prospect of a new government being formed after the elections, we wanted to know whether this is considered to be a central issue by the Israeli public. We asked: “Do you agree or disagree that the government formed after the election should try to advance the solution of two states for two peoples?” We found that a majority of Arab respondents agree with the proposal, compared with a minority of Jewish respondents. And in both cases, the share of those in favor has fallen relative to last year.
Agree that the government formed after the elections should try to advance the solution of two states for two peoples (Jews and Arabs; %)
As expected, we found large differences on this question among different political camps in the Jewish sample: The Left is the most interested in the two-state solution, and the Right is the least interested. In all three camps, the centrality of this solution has significantly declined since last year.
Agree that the government formed after the elections should try to advance an agreement based on two states for two peoples (Jews, by political orientation; %)
Heading for a third Intifada?
In light of recent security events, we repeated our question about the likelihood of a popular uprising erupting in the occupied territories, if no agreed solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is found. Our findings show a steady increase in the percentage of those who think that there is a high likelihood of a third Intifada, from 36% in 2017 to 62% today.
Believe there is a high likelihood of a third Intifada breaking out in the occupied territories, if a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict agreed on by both sides is not found in the near future (total sample; %)
A breakdown of this month’s data by nationality reveals that a majority of both Jewish and Arab respondents consider a third Intifada to be likely if a solution to the conflict is not found soon, and that the majority in the Jewish sample is larger than that in the Arab sample (64% compared with 51.5%, respectively). Over the last four months, these shares have increased in both population groups.
Believe there is a high likelihood of a third Intifada breaking out in the occupied territories, if a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict agreed on by both sides is not found in the near future (Jews and Arabs; %)
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation shows that in each of the three camps, a majority think that if no solution is found, then we are heading for a third Intifada. The percentage of those who hold this view on the Left (71%) is slightly higher than on the Right (64.5%) and in the Center (60%).
Functioning of the security forces
Israel’s security forces—the IDF, the police, and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet)—are on the frontlines of the fight against terror. We asked respondents what grade these forces should receive for their handling of the recent series of terror attacks. A small majority of Jews awarded them a grade of very good or fairly good (54%), while less than a quarter of Arabs provided the same assessment (23%).
What grade would you give to the security forces for their handling of the recent series of terror attacks? (Jews and Arabs; %)
Breaking down responses by political orientation (Jews) reveals that a large majority of those on the Left and in the Center (73% and 69%, respectively) think that the security forces have done a good job, but that only a minority of those on the Right agree (45%). A breakdown by age (Jews) shows that most of those aged 35 and over gave a good grade to the security forces (between 59% and 63%), compared with half of those aged 25–34 and only one-third of the youngest cohort (18–24).
Give the security forces a good grade for their handling of the recent series of terror attacks (Jews, by age; %)
Over the last two years, there has been a noticeable rise in the proportion of Jewish Israelis who agree that Israel should carry out a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American agreement. The percentage of Arabs who share this view is much smaller, and is declining.
Support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American agreement (Jews and Arabs; %)
A breakdown by political orientation (Jews) reveals that there is now a majority on the Right who support an attack without American agreement, compared with half of those in the Center and a large minority of those on the Left. A review of previous findings shows that the views of these different camps have become closer over time.
Support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American agreement (Jews, by political orientation; %)
We asked our respondents whether they agree or disagree with recent claims that the support expressed by the heads of Israel’s various defense agencies for the natural gas deal with Lebanon was influenced not only by professional security considerations, but also by political considerations. We received mixed responses: Half the sample believe that this support was indeed also influenced by political considerations; one-third, that the agency heads’ decision was entirely professional; and 17% said that they don’t know. In the Jewish sample, the proportion of those who think that political considerations were involved is higher than the equivalent proportion in the Arab sample.
Recently, it has been claimed that the support expressed by the heads of Israel’s various defense agencies for the natural gas deal with Lebanon was influenced not only by professional security considerations, but also by political considerations. Do you agree or disagree with this claim? (Jews and Arabs; %)
A breakdown of responses by political orientation (Jews) reveals that a majority of those on the Right, compared with a minority in the Center and on the Left, think that the opinion of the defense agency heads was also influenced by political considerations, and not only by professional considerations.
Agree that the support expressed by the heads of the various defense agencies for the natural gas agreement with Lebanon was influenced not only by professional security considerations but also by political considerations (Jews, by political orientation; %)
The October 2022 Israeli Voice Index was prepared by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone (to include groups that are under-represented on the internet) between October 19–23, 2022, with 600 men and women interviewed in Hebrew and 150 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error was ±3.59% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by Midgam Research and Consulting Ltd. The full data file can be found at: https://dataisrael.idi.org.il.