Will the Election Results Hinge on the Double-Envelope Ballots?

Does the past predict the future? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. What we can expect is stability in the number of double-envelope ballots, which will have a negligible impact on the distribution of Knesset seats between the blocs, unless they push some list below the threshold.

On Tuesday, November 1, 2022, there were 6,788,804 Israelis eligible to vote in the election for the 25^th Knesset. In addition to the overwhelming majority who cast their ballot in the polling station nearest their home, there is growing number of citizens who voted in double envelopes – or, by their official name – “outer envelopes.” Who are these voters? Most are members of the security forces who are stationed far from home, but there are also hospital patients and staffs, prisoners and detainees, Israeli diplomats posted abroad, and residents of senior-citizen and assisted living facilities, along with persons with disabilities who are entitled to vote in any polling station that is defined as “accessible.”The Knesset Elections Law stipulates that this special arrangement is intended exclusively for persons with disabilities. In recent years, however, quite a few citizens have exploited the option and declared themselves “disabled” (even when they are not), thereby saving themselves the time and effort of a trip to the polling place where they are registered. This is why the suggestion by the chair of the Likud that party supporters take advantage of this loophole and vote in accessible polling stations came in for strong criticism.

In the past, the number of double-envelope ballots was small, with minimal influence on the final result. However, in recent years, and especially in March 2021, have seen a significant growth in this category. This phenomenon increases the possibility that these voters could affect the final outcome.

Percentage of Double-Envelope Votes in Knesset Elections (% of all votes)

 

 

Date	Voting Data		Double-Envelope Votes		Votes cast in regular polling stations
	Number of Voters	Turnout	Number of Voters	% of all Ballots	Number of Voters	% of all Ballots
March 2019	4,340,253	68.49%	240,783	5.55%	4,099,470	94.45%
September 2019	4,465,168	69.83%	282,442	6.32%	4,182,726	93.68%
April 2020	4,615,135	71.52%	330,209	7.15%	4,284,926	92.85%
March 2021	4,436,365	67.44%	425,512	9.59%	4,010,853	90.41%

 

Who is likely to benefit from the double-envelope votes, and who will lose out? What lists will gain or lose an extra seat?

In general, the variance in the distribution of double envelope votes is the result of the different composition of these as opposed to the electorate as a whole, especially the over-representation of young adults, since the largest single group that votes in double envelopes consists of those serving in the military. This is why support for Arab and ultra-Orthodox lists (most of whose voters do not serve in the IDF) in double envelopes is much lower than that among the public at large. On the other hand, young voters tend to favor rightwing parties or trendy lists such as Green Leaf (whenever it has run) or the Jewish Home (2013). In recent years, however, the proportion of military personnel in this category has dropped, because more citizens avail themselves of accessible polling stations. In the 2020 and 2021 elections, another factor came into play-—the COVID-19 pandemic: Tens of thousands of double-ballot votes were cast at that time by persons who were quarantined or hospitalized, as well as by residents of senior citizens homes.

Even so, an analysis of the breakdown of the voting in 2021 reveals that there still was a difference. For example, we would have expected that the chief beneficiary of the double envelopes would be the Religious Zionism list: in 2021, the percentage of such votes among this group was more than 25% higher than that in regular polling stations. Moreover, this list has “inherited” many of those who voted for Yamina last time—it too was overrepresented in the double envelope ballots. A rise in the rate of double-ballot envelopes was seen among Labor party voters as compared with among other voters in 2021.

Who loses out? First of all, the Arab lists, whose representation in this category is less than half of that among regular voters. And so, it is quite likely that if any of them are hanging on to the electoral threshold by their fingernails after all the regular ballots have been counted, the double-envelope ballots will leave them below the threshold and outside the Knesset.

Double-envelop ballots among voters for the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, are far less frequent than in regular ballots—by as much as a third.

The Results of the March 2021 Election, Double-Envelope and Regular Ballots (%, by electoral list)

 

What impact will the double envelopes have on the results by bloc? An analysis of the voting data for the 2021 election reveals that the share of the double-envelope ballots for the two blocs was almost equal: 48.76% for the Netanyahu campIn this analysis, Yamina voters in 2021 are included as part of the “Netanyahu bloc.” and 48.56% for the “anyone-but Netanyahu ” camp (the rest were invalid ballots or cast for lists that failed to clear the threshold).

The Results of the March 2021 Election, Double-Envelope and Regular Ballots (%, by bloc)

 

Does the past predict the future? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. What we can expect is stability in the number of double-envelope ballots, which will have a negligible impact on the distribution of Knesset seats between the blocs, unless they push some list below the threshold.