Flash Survey: Most Israelis Assess that the Protest Movement Has Delayed Progression of the Judicial Overhaul
Almost a quarter of Israelis have participated in some form of protest, a majority assess that the protest movement has delayed the progress of the judicial overhaul and Likud voters are divided on the question of continuing its implementation.
Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90
Slightly less than a quarter of those surveyed (23%) report having participated in the protests, while 77% say they have not. Participation is higher among Jews than among Arabs. When findings are broken down by political blocs, they reveal a large increase over time in respondents who define themselves as leftwing (from less than half at the start of the protest to a large majority today), a moderate increase among centrists (to about one-third), and a very small increase on the Right.
Have you participated in one or more protest actions against the judicial overhaul (demonstrations, signing petitions, etc.)? (%, Jews)
Segmentation by age reveals particularly high participation among respondents aged 55 and above. This group also showed the largest increase in participation around March 2023.
Have you participated in one or more protest actions against the judicial overhaul demonstrations, signing petitions, etc.)? (%, Jews, by age group)
|
|
January 2023 |
March 2023 |
July 2023 |
|
18-34 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
|
35-54 |
11 |
19 |
19 |
|
55 and over |
23.5 |
37 |
37 |
We examined which protest actions Israelis consider legitimate today, and which are not. As the figure below indicates, demonstrations outside the homes of elected officials are the only form of protest that garners a majority of supporters within the Israeli public (70%). There is considerably less support for not reporting to military reserves service. When we asked in January if there was support for this action, 18% approved. The percentage rose to 24% in February and levels of support remain similar today.
Which of the following actions do you consider to be legitimate or illegitimate as part of a public protests against the Government on an issue of paramount national importance? (%, total sample)
As expected, there were large differences between the responses of the political blocs. Those on who self-identity as “Left” assign greater legitimacy to all forms of protest that we asked about. In this political bloc, there was a sharp increase in support for not reporting to reserve duty (in January, 37%; February, 47%; July, 65%). Among self-identified centrists, demonstrations are considered highly legitimate, and a small majority approves of blocking roads, but only a minority support obstructing access to Ben-Gurion Airport. Even fewer support not reporting for volunteer reserve duty (although here too there has been a moderate increase in approval rates for this measure: In January, 17%; February, 23%; July, 28%). The only form of protest considered legitimate by a majority of the Right bloc are demonstrations outside the homes of elected officials.
Which of the following actions do you believe is legitimate or illegitimate as part of a public protests against the Government on a matter of supreme national importance (%, Jews, by political bloc)
|
|
Demonstrating outside the homes of elected officials |
Blocking roads for a few hours |
Blocking access to Ben-Gurion Airport |
Not reporting for reserve duty |
|
Left |
97 |
83 |
69 |
65 |
|
Center |
79 |
53 |
31 |
28 |
|
Right |
59 |
18 |
8 |
9 |
The largest portion of respondents assess that to date, the protests have achieved only minor delays in the judicial overhaul’s progress. However, only one-fifth responded that it had no effect whatsoever.
To what extent have the protests delayed implementation of the judicial overhaul? (%, total sample)
Segmentation by participation or nonparticipation in the protests reveals that participants perceive a greater effect.
|
|
Have taken part |
Have not taken part |
|
No delay in the progress of the overhaul |
8.5 |
22 |
|
Minor delay in the progress of the overhaul |
58 |
40 |
|
Major delay in the progress of the overhaul |
30 |
23 |
|
Don’t know |
3.5 |
15 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
Segmentation by political camp reveals that the left comprises the largest proportion of respondents who assess that the protests have had a major impact on delaying the progress of the judicial overhaul (44%). The corresponding figures are 28% on the right and 21% on the center.
As the repeal of the standard of reasonableness proceeds, and the protests escalate in kind, we asked: “Which of these two options has top priority—continuing the implementation of the judicial overhaul based on the Rothman-Levin plan, or abandoning the overhaul and investing in a comprehensive joint effort by the coalition and opposition to bolster national unity?
A majority of respondents favor abandoning the overhaul to focus on bolstering national unity (58%) compared to only a quarter (27%) who support continued implementation of the judicial overhaul under these circumstances. Segmentation based on the respondents’ votes in the last Knesset election reveals that an overwhelming majority (87%) of those who voted for parties now in the opposition support abandoning the overhaul and focusing on national unity. Among those who voted for the coalition parties, a slight majority (52%) support implementing the overhaul in its present form. A third of this group assesses that the overhaul should be suspended, and action be taken to bolster national unity.
Which of the two options should be preferred today? (%, total sample)
Segmentation by the four parties that compose the coalition finds great differences between them. A strong majority of voters for the ultra-Orthodox parties support the legislation, as does a small majority of those who voted for Religious Zionism. In contrast, among Likud voters, opinions are divided, with 43% in favor of proceeding with the judicial overhaul, and an equal percentage preferring to forgo the overhaul and focus the Coalition and Opposition’s efforts on bolstering national unity.
|
(%) |
Advancing the Rotman-Levin plan for judicial overhaul |
Shelving the overhaul and investing in a joint effort by the Coalition and Opposition to bolster national unity |
Don’t know |
Total |
|
Likud |
43 |
43 |
14 |
100 |
|
Religious Zionist |
52 |
36 |
12 |
100 |
|
Shas |
62 |
21 |
17 |
100 |
|
United Torah Judaism |
72 |
15 |
13 |
100 |
We asked: “Do you support or oppose the establishment of a national emergency unity government led by Netanyahu, in which Yesh Atid and the National Unity Party would replace the rightwing Religious Zionist and Jewish Power parties?” Israelis are ambivalent on this: 39% support the idea and 45% oppose it, with a large group of respondents who “don’t know.”
Do you support or oppose the establishment of an emergency unity government headed by Netanyahu, in which Yesh Atid and the National Unity Camp would replace the rightwing Religious Zionism and Jewish Power parties? (%, total sample)
A majority of those who voted for Zionist parties currently in the opposition in the last election (Yisrael Beitenu, Labor, Yesh Atid, and National Unity) support the establishment of a national unity emergency government that would include centrist parties. Only a minority of those who voted for the coalition parties favor this idea. Especially noteworthy in this context is that among Likud voters (the largest faction in the Knesset and the main component of the coalition) there is a higher percentage in favor of the proposal than those who oppose it (45% and 38%, respectively).
Do you support the establishment of an emergency national unity government headed by Netanyahu in which Yesh Atid and the National Unity would replace the rightwing Religious Zionist and Jewish Power parties? (%, total sample, by vote in the last election)
An interesting, though not unexpected, finding is that a large majority of those who support the judicial overhaul are opposed to the idea of centrist parties entering the coalition in place of the Religious Zionist party (73% are opposed compared to 21% in favor of the change). By contrast, among those who prefer to abandon the overhaul and focus on national unity, a majority favors including the centrist parties in the government (53% in favor compared to 34% who are opposed).
In this survey, we included a question we’ve asked several times in the past: “Recently we have been hearing assessments that there is a likelihood that civil war will break out in Israel due to the fierce political disagreements between the various sectors of society. In your opinion, what are the odds that a violent civil war will erupt in Israel?” Although almost half of the respondents (49%) think the chances of civil war are fairly low or very low, almost as many (45%) believe that the odds are fairly high or very high. In addition, this recent survey shows the highest percentage of respondents who believe there is a strong likelihood of civil war since the first time the question was posed, in January 2023.
There is a strong possibility of civil war in Israel in the foreseeable future, including violence between the opposing sides (%, total sample)
In recent months, fear of civil war has been highest among self-identified leftwing Jewish respondents and lowest among those affiliated with the right. However, there has been an increase in those who assess a high likelihood of civil war within all three camps.
Is there a high likelihood of civil war in Israel in the foreseeable future, with violence between the opposing sides. (%, Jews, by political camp)
A third of the respondents are “certain” or “think” that they would vote for a new party led by the current protest leaders, should one be formed ahead of the next Knesset elections. Of these, 6.5% are certain they would do so and about a quarter think they may, depending on the party’s platform and leaders. Only slightly more than half of the respondents (53%) are certain or think they would not vote for such a party.
If elections are held in the foreseeable future and the leaders of the current protest movement establish a new party and run for the Knesset, would you consider voting for it? (%, total sample)
Segmentation by political bloc reveals that two-thirds (68%) of those on the left are “certain” or "think" they would vote for a party headed by the leaders of the protest and 44% of self-defined centrists are “certain” or would consider doing to. Even on the right a significant portion—18%—fall into this category. Segmentation among those who voted for an opposition party in the last election, indicates that a majority of those who cast a ballot for Labor or Yesh Atid are certain or think they would vote for such party, while approximately half of those who supported the National Unity, and a minority of those who voted for Yisrael Beytenu, would do so.
|
(%) |
Are certain they would vote for a party established by the protest leaders |
Think they may, depending on the party’s platform and leaders |
Certain or think they would not vote for such a party |
Don’t know |
Total |
|
Labor |
9 |
57 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
100 |
|
Yesh Atid |
15 |
54 |
17 |
14 |
100 |
|
National Unity |
5 |
43 |
35 |
17 |
100 |
|
Yisrael Beitenu |
12 |
27.5 |
35.5 |
25 |
100 |
* * *
The survey was conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research of the Israel Democracy Institute. The data were collected online and by telephone (to fill in groups that are not adequately represented on the internet) on July 13, 2023. The representative sample of all Israelis aged 18 and older comprised 513 men and women interviewed in Hebrew, and 100 interviewed in Arabic. The maximum sampling error for the total sample is ±4.04%, at a 95% confidence level. The field work was carried out by the Dialogue Institute. The full data file is available at https://dataisrael.idi.org.il.