A Majority of Jewish Israelis See a Hostage Deal as a Higher National Priority Than Military Action in Rafah

A new survey by the Israel Democracy Institute's Viterbi Center for Public Opinion examined what should be the highest priority in terms of Israeli national interest: military action in Rafah or a deal to release the hostages held by Hamas. The survey, conducted by Prof. Tamar Hermann, Dr. Lior Yohanani, and Yaron Kaplan found that a majority of the Jewish public (56%) agrees more with the claim that a deal to release the hostages should be top priority for Israel, while 37% agree more that military action in Rafah should be the top priority. Among Arab Israelis, an absolute majority of 88.5% prioritizes a deal to release the hostages.

Among Jewish Israelis, there are significant differences by political orientation. A large majority on the Left (92.5%) and in the Center (78%) see a deal to release the hostages as top priority, while on the Right, a majority (55%) see military action in Rafah as top priority. However, even among voters on the Right there are significant gaps. Those who voted for Likud in the last election are divided, with 48.5% giving priority to military action and 44% who prioritize a deal to release the hostages. On the other hand, among voters for the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties and voters for the Religious Zionism Party, the majority prefer military action in Rafah (Shas: 55%; United Torah Judaism: 61%; Religious Zionism: 83%).

Segmentation by gender among Jewish Israelis reveals that among women, there is a solid majority who prioritize a hostage release deal (63.5%), while men are divided, but leaning towards a preference for a hostage deal (49% prefer a hostage deal, compared to 44% who prefer military action). This gender gap extends to political orientation, especially on the Right: 65% of men on the Right prefer military action, while only 27% prefer a hostage deal. Among women, there is a slightly higher rate of preference for a hostage deal than military action (47% and 45%, respectively). Among Likud voters who are women, 56% prefer a deal while 39% prefer military action.

We also found a higher rate of prioritization of a deal to release the hostages among older Jewish Israelis. Those ages 18-34 are split between 48.5% who prefer a deal and 45.5% who prefer military action, while a majority in the age groups 35-54 and 55+ prefer a hostage deal (53% and 67%, respectively).

What should be the highest priority in terms of Israeli national interest: military action in Rafah or a deal to release the hostages?