48% of Israelis Support Forming a Government with Support From Arab Parties

48% of Israelis support forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties -about a third believe that the Netanyahu bloc has the highest chance of forming a coalition government compared to 17% who think the anti-Netanyahu bloc has a chance

Flash 90

Main Findings

• This month saw a significant rise in the rate of the optimists about the future of Israel’s national security and a slight rise in the rate of those optimistic about its democratic governance.
• More than two-thirds of the public are dissatisfied with the results of the elections. That holds true for all three political camps (Jews).
• After the elections there was a decline, compared to the past, in the rate of those who doubted the propriety of the elections in terms of a match between the actual voting and the official results that were published, but still, more than a fourth are doubtful.
• The majority of the public believes the protests on Balfour Street did not have a substantial influence on the results of the elections. That was the case in all three political camps (Jews).
• The highest rate, though less than a third, thinks the bloc led by Netanyahu has the highest chance to form a coalition. However, about a fourth regard none of the blocs as having a chance to succeed at that task.
• A very large majority of the public sees very high or moderately high chances that in the coming year a fifth round of elections will be held.
• The prevailing explanation among the Jews for the Arab voters’ low participation rate in the elections is disappointment in the leadership of the Joint List. Among the Arabs the explanation is anger over the state’s failure to deal with the problems in Arab society regarding violence and in the economic domain.
• A majority of the Arab public is in favor of forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties. The Jewish public is divided on that question: on the left a large majority favors it, in the center slightly more than half, while on the right only a third are in favor.
• A sharp decline occurred in the rates of those who fear catching the coronavirus or who fear for their economic future. At the same time, the fears on both these issues are higher in the Arab than in the Jewish public.
• The survey results indicate that the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis did not dramatically affect voters’ decisions on which party to vote for.

The National Mood

Compared to the previous month, this time a slight increase was measured in optimism about the state of democratic rule in Israel and a larger increase in optimism about the future of Israel’s national security. Among the Jews 40% are optimistic about the state of democratic rule, compared to 36% among the Arabs. The differences in optimism between the three political camps (Jews) regarding the future of Israeli democracy are large: left – 16%, center – 29%, right – 52%. Note that even on the right, only slightly more than half are optimistic about the future of democratic governance in Israel.

Optimistic about the future of Israel’s democracy and about the future of its national security, April 2019 - February 2021 (%, entire sample)

The Elections

Satisfaction with the results – A large majority of the public (68%) is dissatisfied with the results of the latest elections. An interesting finding is that dissatisfaction among the Jews (71%) is higher than among the Arabs (51%). In all three political camps (Jews), the rate of those who are dissatisfied is very high, and the gaps are small: left – 78.5%, center – 75%, right – 70%.

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the results of the latest elections? (%, entire sample)

A segmentation by voting in the elections reveals that the highest satisfaction with the election results is among Ra’am voters (43%); the lowest is among Yamina voters (5.5%).

Propriety of the elections – In this survey, which was conducted immediately after the elections, a decline was measured in the rate of those who cast doubt on whether the official results of the elections accurately reflect the public’s voting. It appears that the way in which the elections were managed inspired trust. Remarks by certain senior figures that they were suspicious of the Central Elections Committee did not negatively affect the public’s trust in the propriety of the elections. We found a disparity between Jews and Arabs, with the distrust among the former smaller than among the latter: 26.5% of the Jews are doubtful about the propriety of the elections compared to 38% of the Arabs.

Full/quite a lot of trust in the propriety of the elections (%, entire sample)

We looked into whether there is a relationship between degree of satisfaction with the election results and trust in the propriety of the elections. We found that among those who are satisfied with the results, 70% believe in the propriety of the elections, while among those who are dissatisfied the figure is 65%. That is, there is a certain relationship but not a strong one.

The effect of the Balfour protests – We asked: “In your opinion, did the protests against the prime minister on Balfour Street in Jerusalem affect or not affect the results of the latest elections?” In the opinion of the majority of the entire sample (58%), the protests did not affect the results. About a fourth say that they strongly or moderately affected them, and the rest do not know. Not surprisingly, among those defining themselves as left-wing and centrist (Jews), the rate of those who see an effect of the protests is considerably higher than the rate on the right.

In your opinion, did the protests on Balfour Street in Jerusalem affect or not affect the results of the latest elections? (%, strongly or moderately affected them, Jews, by political camp)

And What Happens Next?

Who will form a government? We asked: “In your opinion, which bloc has a higher chance of forming a coalition?” In the entire sample the highest rate, which is not high in itself (32%), thinks that the Netanyahu-led bloc has the best chance to form a coalition. Seventeen percent think the anti-Netanyahu bloc has a better chance. Fifteen percent view the chances of both blocs as equal, while about a fourth (24%) expect neither of the two blocs to succeed at the task.

Which bloc has a better chance of forming a coalition?

A segmentation of the answers to this question by political blocs (Jews) turns up a very interesting finding: on the right, the rate of those who believe the Netanyahu-led bloc has the highest chance to form a coalition is much higher than the rate who think the change camp – Netanyahu’s opponents – will succeed at the task (45% vs. 10%). And yet, among the center and the left, self-confidence in the change bloc’s ability to form a coalition is considerably lower (only 25% among the center and the left). It is also interesting that the rate of “Don’t knows” is almost double their rate in the center and on the right.

Which bloc has a better chance of forming a coalition? (%, Jews, by political camp)

A fifth round of elections? A huge majority of the entire sample (80%) anticipates that in the coming year a fifth round of elections will be held. Here the difference between Jews and Arabs is small (Jews – 81%, Arabs – 77%). Nor are there large gaps between the political camps (Jews), and the prevailing perception is the same: the majority foresees further elections in the coming year (left – 92%, center – 82.5%, right – 79%).

What are the chances that in the coming year a fifth round of elections will be held?

The Arab parties in the elections – According to the survey data, there are two main factors behind the sharp decline in the turnout of the Arab voters: the disappointment with the leadership of the Joint List (35%) and the anger over the way in which the state is handling problems in Arab society (29%).

There are gaps, though not large, between the Jews’ and the Arabs’ responses to this question: whereas, among the Jews, the most common answer is the disappointment with the Joint List’s leadership (36%), in the Arab public the most frequent response is the anger over the way in which the state is handling problems in Arab society (33%). A difference was also found in rates of those who consider that the feeling of alienation from Israel is what led to the Arab voters’ low turnout in the elections: 12% of the Jews chose that answer compared to 8% of the Arabs.

 “The Arab public’s participation rate in the latest Knesset elections was much lower than in the previous elections. What, in your opinion, is the main reason for this?” (%, Jews and Arabs)

A segmentation of the Jewish public by political camps reveals that, whereas on the left a large majority thinks the Israeli Arabs’ low rate of voting stems from Israel’s failure in dealing with the problems of the Arab public (41% - anger over the state’s handling of problems of Arab society; 17% - feeling of alienation from Israel), on the right only a minority believes those are the main reasons for it (21.5% - anger over the state’s handling of problems of Arab society; 11%—feeling of alienation from Israel). The positions of the center camp on this question are closer to those of the left—51% chose the answers that pin the blame for the low voting rate on the state’s failure in dealing with problems of Arab society.

A government with outside support from the Arab parties? There is great support in the Arab public for forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties so as to prevent a fifth round of elections (65.5%). In contrast, in the Jewish public the positions on this issue are divided: 44% in favor, 41% against. The degree of support in the Jewish public for forming a government with outside support of the Arab parties rose substantially compared to February 2020, when only 23% of the Jews were in favor of this possibility.

Do you support or oppose forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties so as to prevent a fifth round of elections? (%, Jews and Arabs)

A segmentation by political camps (Jews) reveals that in the left-wing camp there is great support for such a move (79%), while in the centrist camp the support is lower but still a majority (55%). On the right, only about a third favor forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties (34%). Compared to February 2020,This question is from The Israeli Voice Index February 2020: " Do you support or oppose the formation of a government with outside support from the Joint List?". most of the increase in support for forming a government occurred in the right and center camp.

Support for forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties (%, Jews, February 2020 and March 2021)

The party whose voters show the greatest support for forming a coalition with outside support from the Arab parties is Ra’am, and after it come Meretz and the Joint List. There is also relatively strong support among voters for Yesh Atid, Labor, and Blue and White. Another party, surprisingly, in which the majority is in favor of forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties is Torah Judaism. New Hope voters are divided on this issue. In three parties, however, there is a majority for the opponents of forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties: Likud, Religious Zionism, and Yamina, but even in these parties the opposition is now lower than a year ago (Likud: February 2020 – 80% opposed, at present – 51%; Yamina and Religious Zionism: February 2020 – 83% opposed, at present – 63%).

Support for forming a government with outside support from the Arab parties (%, entire sample, by voting in the latest elections)

The Coronavirus - a Year of the Pandemic

Fear of catching the coronavirus – A year after the first infections were discovered in Israel, with most of the Israeli population now vaccinated and infection rates in an ongoing decline, a substantial decrease was found in people’s fear that they or one of their families will catch the virus: three months ago, just before the vaccination effort began, two-thirds of the Israelis said they feared getting infected with the virus compared to only 28% who fear it today. The decline in fear is especially pronounced in the Jewish public compared to a more moderate decline in the Arab public.

Afraid that they or a family member will catch the coronavirus (%, Jews and Arabs)

Fear for the economic future – Fear for one’s economic future has also dropped: a year ago two-thirds of the Israelis feared for their economic future, and three months ago more than half (54%) expressed that fear. Now, less than half of the public fears for their economic future (45%).

As on the issue of fear of infection, the rate of those in the Arab public who fear for their economic future (59.5%) is also considerably higher than the rate of Jews who have that fear (42%).

Fear for the economic future (%, Jews and Arabs)

A segmentation of the results by income (above average, average, and below average) reveals that the sharpest decline in fear is among those with above-average income: only 30% of them fear for their economic future compared to almost double that rate among those with low-average income.

Fear for the economic future (%, entire sample, by income)

The coronavirus crisis and the voting in the elections – The media and political discourse in recent months indicated that the coronavirus crisis in general, and the government’s performance in particular, were at the center of the latest election campaign. However, a majority of the interviewees (56%) said that the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis influenced their decision on voting for a party to a small extent or not at all.

“To what extent did the way in which the country has dealt with the coronavirus crisis affect your decision on which party to vote for?” (%, entire sample)

A segmentation of this question by voting in the latest elections reveals that only among Likud voters is there a majority – and even it is small – for those whose decision on which party to vote for was influenced to a moderately or very great extent by the country’s handling of the coronavirus crisis. A relatively high rate (48%) of the Yamina voters also said the performance of the state influenced their decision to a moderately or very great extent, but against the backdrop of the oppositional campaign toward the government that party leader Naftali Bennett conducted, presumably in this case the decision to vote for this party reflected a low assessment of the state’s performance during the crisis. In the Ra’am (14%) and Meretz (18%) parties, we found the lowest rate of those saying the state’s performance in the crisis influenced their decision on which party to vote for.

Party	The way in which the country handled the coronavirus crisis influenced to a very great or moderately great extent my decision on which party to vote for
Likud	52
Yamina	48
Yesh Atid	46
Labor	45
Blue and White	45
New Hope	39
Shas	31
Joint List	31
Yisrael Beiteinu	30
Religious Zionism	27.5
Torah Judaism	24
Meretz	18
Ra’am	14

A segmentation of the Jewish public’s responses to this question indicates that the state’s performance during the crisis had more influence on young people’s decisions on which party to vote for than on those of older people.

The state’s handling of the coronavirus crisis influenced to a very great/moderately great extent my decision on which party to vote for (%, Jews)

The Israeli Voice Index for March 2021 was prepared by the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research of the Israel Democracy Institute. In the survey, which was conducted on the internet and by telephone (supplements of groups that are not sufficiently represented on the network) from March 25 to March 29, 2021, 617 men and women were interviewed in Hebrew and 156 in Arabic, constituting a representative national sample of the entire adult population of Israel aged 18 and older. The maximum sampling error for the entire sample was 3.59%± at a confidence level of 95%. The fieldwork was done by the Smith Institute. For the full data file see: https://dataisrael.idi.org.il