IDI Survey: Most Jewish Israelis feel safer in a scenario with high number of civilian firearms; most Arabs feel less safe

The Center for Security and Democracy and the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel and personal security—the present release focuses on internal security; a press release will follow tomorrow focusing on national security.

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The survey finds that the more lenient policy adopted toward distributing firearms to citizens has had very different consequences for the sense of security among Jews and Arabs. In the Jewish sample as a whole, similar percentages of respondents say that they would feel safe (very much or quite a lot) if there is a licensed firearm in their home (59%) or if large numbers of civilians carry firearms in public spaces (56%). For most Arabs, meanwhile, the new policy has resulted in their feeling safe to only a small extent or not at all (69% regarding having a licensed firearm at home, and 76% regarding the carrying of firearms by civilians in public spaces).

Selection of Key Findings:

Trust in the police is in decline, and the differences between political camps are larger than ever

Trust in the police has undergone major upheavals over the last year and a half—from a low for the last decade and a half in June 2023, in the context of the large demonstrations against the government’s judicial reforms (35% - Jews). Among Jewish Israelis, police then had one of the highest trust ratings in the last twenty years following the events of October 7 (59%), when police officers fought with remarkable bravery and personal sacrifice to protect citizens. We now see a decline over the last year, with trust falling to just 39% in the Jewish public.

In Arab society, the rise in trust in the police after October 7 was not as pronounced as in Jewish society, with the level of trust standing at 38% in December 2023. The subsequent decline in trust has also been more moderate in Arab society, with the trust rating currently standing at 25%—less than half what it was two decades ago.

Trust the police, 2003–2024 (Jews and Arabs; %)

Breaking down responses in the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals bigger discrepancies in recent months than ever before: 50% of those on the Right trust the police, while trust among those in the Center and on the Left is at an all-time low (25% and 15%, respectively). The findings over the years show that even during the disengagement from Gaza, when the police were involved in dispersing volatile demonstrations associated with the Right, public trust in the police was not deeply affected by political orientation. That is, the police were seemingly above political disagreements. Changes in attitudes toward the police based on political orientation can be seen from 2018 onward. The question of the police’s independence, neutrality, and professionalism has now become a political issue.

Divisions along party lines regarding the fairness of police

Following a general question about the police’s fairness, respondents were asked several questions focusing on various aspects of this topic. First, we asked about the independence of the police, and the involvement of the Minister of National Security in police appointments. We found overwhelming consensus among voters for opposition parties that the Minister of National Security should refrain from involvement in appointments in order to maintain the independence of the police, as contrasted with a low level of agreement with this statement among voters for coalition parties.

 We also asked respondents whether pressure from politicians results in decisions made by the police command and by police officers in the field not being based solely on professional considerations. Once again, we found a large majority of opposition party voters who agree with this statement; around half of coalition party voters are also in agreement. The responses to this question indicate very low assessments of evenhandedness in decision-making by the police, as professionalism and neutrality are important principles in fair decision-making.

A similar picture emerges in the case of a statement assessing views about front-line police officers: Are decisions by police officers in the field mainly influenced by their personal and political views regarding different population groups? Here, the differences between voters for coalition parties and voters for opposition parties are smaller, with the lowest levels of agreement with the statement found among voters for Religious Zionism (38%) and Likud voters (45%). Interestingly, voters for Shas and United Torah Judaism are more similar in their views to opposition party voters, perhaps as a result of the experiences of Haredim as a minority group. It is also worthy of note that voters for Arab parties do not offer a more negative view of police officers in this regard than do Jewish respondents.

Agree with the following statements, by vote in the 2022 Knesset elections (total sample; %)

The Ministry of National Security’s policy of distributing firearms results in a greater feeling of security mainly among those on the Right

The survey also examined the state’s attempts to respond to the severe damage to Israeli citizens’ sense of personal security caused by the events of October 7. Specifically, the respondents were asked about the impact of the more lenient policy adopted toward distributing firearms to citizens. We found that this policy has had very different consequences for the sense of security among Jews and Arabs. In the Jewish sample as a whole, similar percentages of respondents say that they would feel safe (very much or quite a lot) if there is a licensed firearm in their home (59%) or if large numbers of civilians carry firearms in public spaces (56%). However, analyzing these respondents by political orientation reveals sizable differences: For example, on the Left and in the Center, the carrying of weapons in public spaces elicits a sense of personal security from just 21% and 41.5%, respectively, compared with 70% of respondents on the Right. This begs the question of whether this large discrepancy reflects different ideas about the role of the state and the dangers inherent in firearms being carried by private citizens, or whether it reflects support for a policy that is politically identified with the minister who advanced it (and thus respondents report a stronger sense of personal security in order to express support for the policy).

For most Arabs, meanwhile, the new policy has resulted in their feeling safe to only a small extent or not at all (69% regarding having a licensed firearm at home, and 76% regarding the carrying of firearms by civilians in public spaces). It should be remembered that the social context for Arab respondents is very different. First, Arab society in Israel is experiencing an illegal weapons crisis, which is fueling the rise in violent crime in their communities. Second, most Arabs are not eligible to receive a firearms license even under the new criteria, even if they feel threatened. Third, previous surveys have shown that the wider distribution of firearms makes Arab citizens feel less safe, presumably due to the fear that these guns may be used against civilian bystanders.

To what extent would you feel safe in the following scenarios? (%)

Demonstrations are an important tool for Israel’s citizens

The survey examined the Israeli public’s views regarding demonstrations and their policing. Demonstrations have been one of the most characteristic phenomena of the last two years, with large numbers of Israelis taking to the streets on repeated occasions. A substantial proportion of the respondents agree that demonstrations are an important tool for citizens in a democratic state, even if they disrupt public order; this holds true whether the respondents themselves had participated or not participated in demonstrations in the last year (84% and 47%, respectively). Respondents who identify with the Left and the Center are much more supportive than those on the Right of the statement that demonstrations are an important tool for citizens in a democratic state even if they disrupt public order (Left, 94%; Center, 80%; Right, 38%). This is despite the fact that both Left and Right have made frequent use of mass demonstrations since the establishment of the state.

In this context, we also asked our respondents whether they think that the police maintain the correct balance between the freedom to protest and public order considerations. We found that a small, yet sizable and stable proportion of the Israeli public, believe that the police do indeed act in a balanced way when policing demonstrations. Analyzing the responses by voting pattern reveals that this is the view of between 33% and 47% of voters across all parties, with the exception of voters for United Torah Judaism (27%), Ra’am (23%), and Labor (16%). This discrepancy may stem from the fact that voters for these parties have been exposed (personally or via friends) to policing of demonstrations that has affected their responses. Voters for Yisrael Beytenu were exceptional in their high level of agreement with the statement (58%).

Agree that the police maintain the correct balance between the freedom to protest and public order considerations (total sample, by vote in the 2022 Knesset elections; %)

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This special survey on internal security was prepared by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute, for the IDI’s Center for Security and Democracy. The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone (to include groups that are under-represented on the internet) between October 7–13, 2024, with 600 men and women interviewed in Hebrew and 150 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error was ±3.58% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by Shiluv I²R.