Majority of Israelis give low ratings to Prime Minister Netanyahu; high ratings to IDF Chief of Staff
War in Gaza Survey 13
The majority of Israelis gave Prime Minister Netanyahu low ratings (57%), while IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi topped the rankings of positive performance (48%). More than two-thirds of Israelis think we are on the verge of an all-out-war with Hezbollah.
Photo by Yonatan Sindel/Flash90
This thirteenth flash survey on the war in Gaza was conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. Data collection was carried out between March 18–21, 2024, with 578 men and women interviewed via the internet and by telephone in Hebrew and 159 in Arabic. The maximum sampling error was ±3.68% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by the Lazar Research Institute.
Topics covered in this report:
Performance assessments for political and military leaders since October 7
Conducting the war:
- The likelihood of all-out war in the north
- The suffering of the Palestinian population as a factor in planning the continuation of the fighting in Gaza
Israel-US relations:
- Responding to American demands regarding the continuation of the fighting in Gaza
- The recent US intelligence report on the internal situation in Israel
- US plans for a jetty in Gaza and Israel’s bargaining power vis-à-vis Hamas
Firearms policy in Israel and sense of personal security:
- More lenient eligibility criteria for firearms licenses
- The establishment of civil defense units
We asked our respondents: “On a scale from 1 = very poor to 5 = excellent, what grade would you give each of the following officials for their performance since October 7?” In the total sample, the highest score was given to IDF Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi, and the lowest, to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. As shown in the figure below, the leaders in question can be divided into two categories: In the first category are Halevi, Gallant, and Gantz, whose performance is rated by the majority of respondents as either excellent, good, or so-so. The second category comprises Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich, for whom the majority of respondents returned a negative assessment.
Breaking down the data by nationality reveals that Jews and Arabs have very different opinions on this issue: Top of the rankings in the Jewish sample are Chief of General Staff Halevi, with a positive performance assessment from a majority of 55% of respondents, and Defense Minister Gallant (46%), followed by Minister Benny Gantz (37.5%). In joint fourth place in the Jewish sample are Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir, each given a positive assessment by 32% of respondents, and bringing up the rear, Finance Minister Smotrich (21.5%). It is worth noting that the rating for Netanyahu represents a slight increase relative to the survey findings from mid-October (24.5% in the Jewish sample) and November 2023 (26.5%). Minister Gallant has also seen an improvement in his performance rating since October, when only 40.5% of Jewish respondents gave him a positive assessment.
In the Arab sample, for all the leaders we asked about, the share of respondents giving a positive assessment is much lower than the equivalent share in the Jewish sample, though the overall ranking is similar: Gantz and Halevi lead, with a 15% positive performance rating, followed by Gallant (10%), Netanyahu (5%), Ben-Gvir (3%), and Smotrich (1%).
On a scale from 1 = very poor to 5 = excellent, what grade would you give each of the following for their performance since October 7? (total sample; %)
Breaking down responses in the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that in all three camps, Chief of General Staff Halevi tops the rankings and Finance Minister Smotrich is in last place, while the positive performance ratings for each leader vary from camp to camp. The figure below shows clearly that the positive ratings for all the officials we asked about are higher on the Right than on the Left and in the Center, with the exception of Chief of General Staff Halevi and Minister Gantz, each of whom received a higher share of positive assessments from the Left and the Center than from the Right.
Awarded a grade of good or excellent (4+5) to each of the following for their performance since October 7 (Jewish sample; %)
The northern front: We asked our respondents for their opinion on the likelihood of all-out war breaking out soon between Israel and Hezbollah. We found that a majority of respondents rate this prospect as high—in the total sample (69%), the Jewish sample (71%), and the Arab sample (62%).
In recent weeks, there has been an intensification of the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. What do you think is the likelihood of all-out war breaking out soon between Israel and Hezbollah? (total sample; %)
A breakdown of the Jewish sample by political orientation finds that a majority of respondents in all three camps, with relatively small differences, think that we may be on the verge of all-out war in the north between Israel and Hezbollah (Left, 62%; Center, 66%; Right, 74%).
Taking into consideration the suffering of the Palestinian population when planning the next stages of the war: We repeated a question that we asked in October and December 2023: “To what extent should Israel take into consideration the suffering of the civilian population in Gaza when planning the continuation of the fighting there?” We found that, despite the progress of the war in Gaza and the harsh criticism of Israel from the international community regarding the harm inflicted on the Palestinian population, there remains a very large majority of the Jewish public who think that Israel should not take into account the suffering of Palestinian civilians in planning the continuation of the fighting. By contrast, a similar majority of the Arab public in Israel take the opposite view, and think this suffering should be given due consideration.
To what extent should Israel take into consideration the suffering of the civilian population in Gaza when planning the continuation of the fighting there? (%)
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that the Left is divided on this issue—47% think that Israel should not take into consideration the suffering of Palestinian civilians in Gaza or should do so only to a small extent, while 50% think it should consider their plight to a fairly large or very large extent. By contrast, large majorities in the Center (71%) and on the Right (90%) say that Israel should only take into account the suffering of the Palestinian population to a small extent or should not do so at all.
Should Israel act in coordination with the United States or only in accordance with the judgement of Israel’s leadership?
Against the backdrop of the tensions between the US administration and Israel’s political leadership, we once again asked the following question: “Since the outbreak of the war, the United States and President Biden have stood beside Israel in every respect—militarily, diplomatically, and more. There are now signs that the United States also has demands of Israel which are not always acceptable to the Israeli leadership. In your opinion, what should Israel do: act in coordination with the Americans, or act only in accordance with the judgement of Israel’s leadership?” As in the past, the largest share of the Jewish public hold that Israel should act only in accordance with the judgement of Israel’s leadership, while a smaller proportion think that the country should coordinate its actions with the Americans. Among Arab respondents, the picture is reversed, and a clear majority support coordination with the United States. It is worth noting that a much larger share of Arab respondents than of Jewish respondents selected the “don’t know” response.
What should Israel do: act in coordination with the Americans, or act only in accordance with the judgement of Israel’s leadership? (%)
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation finds that a majority of those on the Left and in the Center (82.5% and 64.5%, respectively) support coordination with the Americans, while a majority of those on the Right (64%) say that Israel should act only in accordance with the judgement of Israel’s leadership.
The recent US intelligence report on the internal situation in Israel: We asked: “A recently published report by US intelligence agencies states that (a) the Israeli public’s lack of faith in Netanyahu’s ability to govern has grown and intensified since the beginning of the war; and (b) large public protests can be expected, demanding Netanyahu’s resignation and new elections. To what extent do you agree with these assessments?” As the figure below shows, the largest share of respondents in the total sample agree with both assessments (42%). The second largest group is of those do not agree with either assessment (28%). The proportion of those who agree only with the first assessment regarding a growing lack of public faith in Netanyahu’s ability to govern (16%) is double the size of the share who agree only with the second assessment that large public protests can be expected (8%).
Though a plurality of both Jews and Arabs agree with both assessments (42% and 41%, respectively), just 14% of Jewish respondents agree only with the first assessment (decline in public trust in Netanyahu’s ability to govern), compared with an equivalent share of 25% among Arab respondents. There is also difference between the two samples in the level of agreement with the assessment predicting large public protests (Jews, 6.5%; Arabs, 16.5%). The share of respondents who disagree with both assessments stands at 31% in the Jewish sample, compared with 12% in the Arab sample.
A recently published report by US intelligence agencies states that (a) the Israeli public’s lack of faith in Netanyahu’s ability to govern has grown and intensified since the beginning of the war; and (b) large public protests can be expected, demanding Netanyahu’s resignation and new elections. To what extent to you agree with these assessments? (total sample; %)
Breaking down responses in the Jewish sample by political orientation finds that a large majority of those on the Left and in the Center agree with both assessments (86% and 67%, respectively), while on the Right, 44% of respondents do not agree with either assessment, and only 25% agree with both.
The impact of the United States constructing a jetty in Gaza on Israel’s bargaining power vis-à-vis Hamas: The disagreements between Israel and the United States over the supply of humanitarian aid to Gaza residents have led the US administration to unilaterally announce the construction of a jetty for bringing in supplies by sea. We asked: “President Biden has announced that the United States intends to construct a jetty in Gaza to facilitate the supply of humanitarian aid. In your opinion, how will such a step affect Israel’s bargaining power vis-à-vis Hamas?”
In the Jewish sample, a clear majority (60%) think that construction of the jetty will weaken Israel’s negotiating position, as it will improve conditions in the Gaza Strip and there will be no internal pressure on Hamas to agree to Israel’s demands. Only 23% think that it will strengthen Israel’s bargaining power, because supplying humanitarian aid will lessen external pressure on Israel, enabling it to insist on its demands vis-à-vis Hamas. Among Arab respondents, by contrast, the balance of opinions is reversed, though the gap between the two positions is much smaller: 43% say that this step will strengthen Israel’s position vis-à-vis Hamas, while 39% believe that it will weaken it.
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that only on the Left did the largest share of respondents think that Israel’s position will be strengthened by the construction of a jetty for supplying humanitarian aid. By contrast, the majority of those in the Center and on the Right believe that this will weaken Israel’s bargaining power vis-à-vis Hamas. An unusually large proportion of respondents selected the “don’t know” response to this question.
President Biden has announced that the United States intends to construct a jetty in Gaza to facilitate the supply of humanitarian aid. In your opinion, how will such a step affect Israel’s bargaining power vis-à-vis Hamas? (Jewish sample; %)
More lenient eligibility criteria for firearms licenses: Against the backdrop of the new and controversial policy introduced by Minister of Internal Security Ben-Gvir, which has set more lenient eligibility criteria for a firearms license, we sought to assess the impact on Israelis’ sense of personal security. In the total sample, the largest share of respondents reported that the new policy has improved their sense of personal security (45%), while a quarter said that it has actually worsened it, and 22% that it has had no effect.
A breakdown of responses by nationality reveals sizable differences between Jews and Arabs: 50.5% of the Jewish respondents feel that the lenient new policy for firearms licenses has improved their sense of personal security, compared with only 19% of Arab respondents. In the Arab sample, the largest share of respondents (36.5%) reported that the policy has not affected their sense of personal security, while 34% said that it has worsened it. In light of claims that greater numbers of firearms in public hands will translate into more violence against women, we compared the responses of men and women to this question, in both the Jewish and Arab samples. We did not find any meaningful differences between the sexes in either sample regarding their sense of security in relation to the new firearms policy.
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation finds a large difference between the camps: A clear majority of those on the Right say that the new policy has improved their sense of security (64.5%), compared with minorities of those in the Center (31.5%) and on the Left (17.5%). Among respondents on the Left, 58% feel that the new policy has worsened their sense of personal security. In addition, we looked at whether the sense of improved personal security among those on the Right is particularly prevalent among voters for Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit (headed by Minister Ben-Gvir), but we found no dramatic difference relative to voters for other right-wing parties.
How does the lenient policy of the Ministry of National Security regarding eligibility criteria for a firearms license affect your sense of personal security? (%)
The establishment of civilian defense squads: We looked at the extent to which the creation of civilian defense squads (under the aegis of the Israel Police) affects Israelis’ sense of personal security. We decided to focus on the Jewish population, as almost 80% of Arab respondents reported that no civilian defense squads has been established in their place of residence, while the equivalent share of Jews was only 13%. Among those Jewish respondents who have a civilian defense squads in their place of residence, almost three-quarters say that its creation has improved their sense of personal security.
Breaking down this sample by political orientation reveals a majority in all three camps who state that the establishment of a civilian defense squads in their place of residence has had a positive effect on their sense of personal security. However, we found a considerable difference between the size of the majorities on the Right and in the Center (79.5% and 71%, respectively) and the majority on the Left (only 55%). In all three camps, only a tiny percentage say that civilian defense squads have worsened their sense of personal security.
How does the establishment of an Israel Police/Border Police civilian defense squads in your place of residence affect your sense of personal security? (Jewish respondents who report that there is a civil defense unit in their place of residence; %)
Breaking down by district those Jewish respondents who say that there is a civilian defense squads in their place of residence, we found that the proportion of respondents who say that the civilian defense squads have had a positive effect on their sense of security is particularly high in Judea and Samaria (100%) and in the south (87%). Surprisingly, only 74% of respondents in the north reported a positive impact, a similar share to that found among residents of Jerusalem (76%) and the central and Tel Aviv district (71%). Among residents of Haifa, 62% say civilian defense squads have a positive effect on their sense of security.