Across the Political Spectrum, Only a Minority of Israelis Think the Government will Survive to the End of its Term
War in Gaza Survey 14
Slightly more than half of Jewish respondents think that the government is doing all it can to bring the hostages home; only a minority of Arabs concur. Only a minority of Israelis think the government will complete its four-year term and a majority of Israelis think that Hamas has succeeded in refocusing international attention on the Palestinian problem.
The survey was conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute between March 31 and April 3, 2024, using a representative sample of 606 Jewish Israelis and 149 Arab Israelis.
Topics covered in this report:
- The national mood
- The capacity of Israeli society to bear the burden of continued fighting
- Is Israel’s leadership doing its utmost to secure the release of the hostages?
- The likelihood of the government completing its four-year term of office
- Israeli public opinion regarding Hamas
- The international arena—the UN Security Council resolution and relations with the United States
This month’s survey found a decline in the level of optimism about the future of democratic rule in Israel relative to previous months, and a continuation of the downward trend in optimism about the future of Israel’s security. In fact, both these are now approaching the low points we found at the height of the public protests against the government’s judicial reforms, in the summer of 2023.
Optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel and about the future of national security, June 2022–March 2024 (total sample; %)
The share of optimists in both cases is smaller among Arab respondents than among Jewish respondents (future of democratic rule in Israel: Arabs, 24%; Jews, 37%; future of national security: Arabs, 17%; Jews, 38%).
As in February, the differences between the political camps in the Jewish sample are larger regarding the future of democracy than regarding the future of national security. Those on the Left and in the Center are more optimistic about the future of security than about the future of democratic rule, while on the Right, the level of optimism regarding democracy is higher than that regarding national security.
In light of the continuing armed conflict, we asked: “In your estimation, for how much longer will Israeli society be able to bear the burden of continued fighting in Gaza and the confrontation in the north?” Jewish respondents have a much higher estimation of Israeli society’s capacity in this regard than do Arab respondents. In the Jewish sample, those on the Right also have a noticeably higher estimation than do those in the Center and on the Left.
For how much longer will Israeli society be able to bear the burden of continued fighting in Gaza and the confrontation in the north? (%)
Analyzing the Jewish sample by age reveals that in all age groups, from youngest to oldest, the largest share of respondents think that Israeli society can endure the war for as long as it takes for Israel to achieve its war goals. Jewish men, meanwhile, are more likely to take this view than are Jewish women (men, 44%; women, 35%). By contrast, in the Arab sample, men are less likely than women to believe that Israeli society will be able to bear the burden of continued fighting for as long as it takes for the war goals to be achieved (men, 5%; women, 8%).
Against the backdrop of more vocal protests by several of the families of hostages, and the public debate over the question of the degree of effort being made by Israel’s leadership to reach a deal for the release of the hostages, we asked: “Given the current circumstances, is Israel’s leadership is doing its utmost to secure the release of the hostages?” We found that slightly more than half of the Jewish respondents think or are certain that the leadership is doing all it can to bring the hostages home. Only a small minority of Arab respondents concur. Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals a clear majority on the Right who think or are certain that every effort is being made, compared with a minority in the Center and on the Left.
Certain or think that given the current circumstances, Israel’s leadership is doing its utmost to enable the release of the hostages (%)
We found an interesting difference between men and women in the Jewish sample: 59% of Jewish men think or are certain that Israel’s leadership is doing its utmost to secure the release of the hostages, compared with only 44% of Jewish women. This picture is reversed in the Arab sample: While only a minority of both men and women believe that the leadership is doing all it can to free the hostages, this view is more common among Arab women (32%) than among Arab men (28%).
We asked: “In your estimation, what is the likelihood that the government will complete its term of office as determined by law (four years, until 2026)?” In both the Jewish and Arab samples, slightly more than one-third of respondents think that the government will survive to the end of its four-year term. In the Jewish sample, only a minority of respondents in all three political camps believe that the government will see out its allotted term, though this minority is much larger on the Right than in the Center and on the Left.
Think there is a very high or fairly high likelihood that the government will complete its term of office as determined by law (four years, until 2026) (%)
A breakdown of responses by vote in the last elections reveals that Shas voters have the most faith in the government’s ability to survive, while Meretz voters have the least. Around one-half of Likud voters think that there is a very high or fairly high likelihood of the government seeing out its term of office.
Think there is a very high or fairly high likelihood that the government will complete its term of office as determined by law (four years, until 2026) (total sample, by vote in the 2022 elections; %)
Since the outbreak of the war, there has been a strong upsurge in Israeli discourse regarding Hamas. In this month’s survey, we examined some of the questions that have arisen as part of this discourse.
Representivity of Hamas: We asked whether, despite its actions, Hamas should be recognized as a representative organization for large segments of the Palestinian people. We found that almost half of all our respondents think that Hamas’s representivity in this regard should be recognized. The share of those in agreement was almost identical among both Jewish and Arab respondents. Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation, we found similar levels of agreement among all three camps, though perhaps for different reasons: For some respondents, agreeing that Hamas represents large sections of the Palestinian public may reflect recognition of Hamas and willingness to conduct negotiations with it, while for others, agreement may reflect the perception that Hamas’s (illegitimate) views and actions reflect those of large sections of the Palestinian people.
Agree that, despite its actions, Hamas should be recognized as a representative organization for large segments of the Palestinian people (%)
Hamas’s success in refocusing international attention on the Palestinian problem: We wanted to know whether Israelis think that Hamas, with the October 7 attack, succeeded in refocusing international attention on the Palestinian problem, after years in which it was relegated to the margins. We found that in the total sample, the majority think that Hamas has indeed been successful in this regard. Here, too, we found a great deal of similarity between opinions in the Jewish and Arab samples. Within the Jewish sample, we found that a majority of respondents in all three political camps agree with this assertion, though again, the size of the majority varies from camp to camp.
Agree that with the October 7 attack, Hamas succeeded in refocusing international attention on the Palestinian problem, after years in which it was relegated to the margins (%)
Analyzing the Jewish sample by age, we found that older respondents tend more than younger respondents to agree that Hamas succeeded in refocusing international attention on the Palestinian problem (55+ age group, 70%; 35–54, 59%; 18–34, 47%). In the Arab sample, we found that men agree more than women that Hamas has been successful in this regard (men, 61.5%; women, 50%).
Did the policy of Israeli governments toward Hamas in recent years made it easier for Hamas to carry out the October 7 attack? We found that a very large majority of the total sample agree with this statement. A much larger share of Jewish respondents than of Arab respondents think that government policy can be blamed for Hamas’s success on October 7. In fact, within the Jewish sample, there is general consensus on this matter across all three political camps.
Agree that the policy of Israeli governments toward Hamas in recent years made it easier for Hamas to carry out the October 7 attack (%)
Hamas’s responsibility for the suffering of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip: We found that a very large majority of the total sample (89%) think that Hamas bears a great deal of responsibility for the suffering of Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip. Among Jewish respondents, an overwhelming majority agree with this statement, but there is also a solid majority of Arab respondents who think that Hamas bears a great deal of responsibility. Within the Jewish sample, there are only very minor differences between the political camps on this issue (Left, 91.5%; Center, 96%; Right, 94%).
Will Hamas cease its struggle against Israel if a Palestinian state is established? On this question, we found considerable differences between Jews and Arabs: Only a tiny proportion of Jewish respondents think that Hamas will end its struggle if a Palestinian state is established, compared with slightly more than half of Arab respondents. Within the Jewish sample, an overwhelming majority of respondents in all three political camps think that Hamas will not cease its struggle against Israel if a Palestinian state is created (Left, 84%; Center, 89%; Right, 95%). In the Arab sample, there is a considerable difference between men and women on this issue, with a majority of men believing that Hamas will end its struggle (60%) compared with a (large) minority of women (43%). Thus, regarding both this question and the question about Hamas’s success in refocusing international attention on the Palestinian problem, we found greater agreement among Arab men than among Arab women.
The UN Security Council resolution: We asked: “The UN Security Council recently adopted a resolution that included a demand for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire during Ramadan and the immediate and unconditional release of the Israeli hostages. In your opinion, should Israel implement its part of this resolution?” A very large majority of Arab respondents think that Israel should indeed implement its part of the resolution. By contrast, only around one-third of Jewish respondents hold the same view. Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation, only on the Left is there a majority who support Israel implementing the relevant part of the UN Security Council resolution (and even then, only a small majority).
Think that Israel should implement its part of the UN Security Council resolution that includes a demand for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire during Ramadan and the immediate and unconditional release of the Israeli hostages (%)
Relations with the United States: Seeking to examine how the Israeli public interprets the growing tension with the White House, we asked: “To what extent does the fact that the United States did not veto the UN Security Council resolution indicate a retreat from its unreserved support of Israel until now?” Around half the Jewish respondents think that this fact does indeed indicate such a retreat to a fairly large or very large extent, while 37% take the opposite view. The Arab sample is divided on this issue: 41% see this as a departure by the United States from its unreserved support of Israel, while 42% do not. Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation finds a large minority on the Left who think this is a retreat (46%), compared with a majority of those in the Center (56%) and around half of those on the Right (51%).
Agree the fact that United States did not veto the UN Security Council resolution indicates a retreat from its unreserved support of Israel until now (%)
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The March 2024 Israeli Voice Index was prepared by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone (to include groups that are under-represented on the internet) between March 31 and April 3, 2024, with 606 men and women interviewed in Hebrew and 149 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error was ±3.64% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by the Dialogue Research and Polling Institute. The full data file can be found at: https://dataisrael.idi.org.il.