Israelis say the time has come for those responsible for October 7 to step down
War in Gaza Survey 15 (April 14–17, 2024)
After more than six months of war, we found that among both Jewish (58%) and Arab Israelis (81%) there is widespread agreement that now that the majority of Israeli forces have left the Gaza Strip, the time has come for those who were responsible for the failure of October 7 to resign from their positions.
Photo by: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90
This fifteenth flash survey on the war in Gaza was conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. Data collection was carried out between April 14–17, 2024, with 514 men and women interviewed via an internet panel and by telephone in Hebrew and 98 in Arabic. The maximum sampling error was ±4.04% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by the Lazar Research Institute.
Topics covered in this report:
- Sense of personal security
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The Iranian missile attack on Israel:
- Opinions on the decision to kill the Iranian commander in Damascus
- A regional alliance in return for agreement in principle by Israel to the future establishment of a Palestinian state?
- Who has come off better in the war in Gaza—Israel or Hamas?
- Viewing pictures or videos of the destruction in Gaza
- Has the time come for the resignation of those who were responsible for the failure of October 7, and for early elections to be held?
- The impact of families of hostages joining the protest movement against the government
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The “day after” in the Gaza Strip:
- What should Israel do in the Gaza Strip?
- Should Israel participate in rebuilding the Gaza Strip?
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This year’s Passover festival in terms of:
- The public mood
- Going out on trips, hikes, visits, and leisure activities
At the time the survey was conducted, the proportion of respondents in the total sample who rate their sense of personal security as fairly high or very high was considerably larger than that of those who rate their sense of personal security as fairly low or very low (39% and 27%, respectively)—presumably, to at least some degree, in the wake of the success in repelling the Iranian attack.
On a scale from 1 = very low to 5 = very high, how would you rate your sense of personal security today? (total sample; %)
There is a very large difference in this regard between Jews and Arabs: While 43% of Jews rate their sense of personal security as fairly high or very high, the equivalent share of Arabs is only 16%. And conversely, 49% of Arabs rate their sense of personal security as fairly low or very low, compared with only 23% of Jews.
Among both Jews and Arabs, men have a higher sense of personal security than do women.
There are also very large differences between political camps in the Jewish sample, with the sense of personal security higher in the Center than on the Left, and even higher on the Right.
On a scale from 1 = very low to 5 = very high, how would you rate your sense of personal security today? (Jewish sample, by political orientation; %)
The killing of the Iranian commander in Damascus: We wished to know whether, in retrospect, and in light of the severe Iranian response to the killing of the Iranian commander in an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, the Israeli public thinks that this action by Israel was correct or not. A very large majority of Jews (80%) think or are certain that this was the correct decision to take, while the picture in the Arab public is the opposite—a majority (67%) think that it was not correct.
Breaking down responses in the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals large majorities on the Right and in the Center who think or are certain that this was the correct course of action, while less than half of those on the Left take the same view.
Think that the decision to kill the Iranian commander in Damascus was correct (Jewish sample, by political orientation; %)
A permanent regional defense agreement that will require Israel to agree to a Palestinian state? Extensive international cooperation appears to have contributed greatly to repelling the Iranian attack, and highlighted the advantages of international and regional collaboration. Thus we asked: “The United States and several Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, helped block the Iranian missile attack on Israel. Against this backdrop, in your opinion, should Israel agree in principle to the future establishment of a Palestinian state, in return for a permanent regional defense agreement?” Once again, we found very large differences between the Jewish and Arab samples: Only 26% of Jews think that in return for a regional defense agreement, Israel should agree in principle to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the future. By contrast, a large majority of Arab respondents (74%) take this view.
There are also very large discrepancies between political camps in the Jewish sample: On the Left, a large majority support Israel agreeing to the future establishment of a Palestinian state in order to secure a regional defense agreement. In the Center, less than a third take this view, and on the Right, only a small minority of 14.5% think or are certain that this is a price worth paying.
Certain or think that in return for a permanent regional defense agreement, Israel should agree in principle to the future establishment of a Palestinian state (Jewish sample, by political orientation; %)
Half a year into the “Iron Swords” war in Gaza, we wished to know which side the public thinks has ended up in a better situation—Israel or Hamas. Here, too, we found large differences between Jews and Arabs. The largest share of Jewish respondents (43%) think that Israel has done better, though this still represents less than half the sample. By contrast, in the Arab sample, more respondents think that Hamas, rather than Israel, has gained the upper hand (20% versus 14%, respectively).
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation, we found relatively small proportions of respondents on the Left and in the Center (around a quarter and less than a third, respectively) who think that Israel has come off better, while on the Right, slightly more than half hold this view. Indeed, among those who identify themselves as on the Left, a larger share think that Hamas has come off better than think that Israel has gained the upper hand. It is important to note that a large share of respondents in all breakdown groupings, and especially among Arabs, selected the “don’t know” response to this question (perhaps preferring not to have to decide), or think that neither side has done better than the other.
To the extent that it is possible at this stage to draw conclusions about the “Iron Swords” war in Gaza, which side has come off better than the other? (%)
It is commonly claimed that Israelis support the continuation of the fighting in Gaza because they are not exposed to pictures of the destruction and suffering there. We therefore sought to assess whether the Israeli public is in fact exposed to the extent of the destruction in Gaza or not. We found that a majority of Arab respondents (68%), and an even larger majority of Jewish respondents (87%), reported having seen a few or many pictures or videos of the widespread destruction in Gaza. Similar viewing levels were found in all three political camps in the Jewish sample. In other words, the claim regarding the lack of exposure in the Israeli public would seem to be ungrounded.
Have you seen or not seen pictures or videos showing the widespread destruction in Gaza? (%)
We asked those who have viewed images of the destruction in Gaza about the main source of these images. Among Jews, almost half have seen the destruction in Gaza in the Israeli media, while only a small minority have done so via the foreign media. By contrast, among Arabs, similar shares have viewed such images in the Israeli media and in the foreign media. Particularly large proportions of each sample reported having seen the destruction in Gaza via social media, WhatsApp groups, and Telegram channels.
Where have you mainly seen pictures or videos of the destruction in Gaza? (respondents who have seen a few or many; %)
We wondered whether, now that the majority of Israeli forces have left the Gaza Strip, the time has come for those who were responsible for the failure of October 7 to resign from their positions. Among both Jews and Arabs, we found widespread agreement that this is indeed the right time for such a step. However, in the Jewish sample, while a decisive majority of those on the Left and in the Center think that those responsible for the failure should resign now, less than half of those on the Right hold the same view.
Think or are certain that the time has come for those responsible for the failure of October 7 to resign from their positions (%)
Just as a majority think that the time has come for those responsible for the failure of October 7 to resign, it would seem that there is also a clear preference for elections to be brought forward. Following the call from Minister Benny Gantz for elections to be held this September, we asked the public for its view on this issue. In the total sample, half the respondents (51%) agree that elections should be held before the end of 2024, a quarter think that they should be held as scheduled (in 2026), and a minority (15%) that elections should be held during 2025.
Breaking down responses by nationality reveals that a majority of Arabs (68%) would prefer for elections to be held in 2024, compared with 47% of Jews. By contrast, only a tiny minority of Arabs (5%) are prepared to wait for the scheduled date of 2026, while this is the preference of around 30% of Jews.
There are very large differences on this issue between political camps in the Jewish sample: On the Left and in the Center, an overwhelming majority are in favor of elections immediately, while on the Right, the largest share of respondents support holding them as scheduled in 2026.
Recently, Minister Benny Gantz called for general elections to be held this September. When do you think elections should be held? (Jewish sample, by political orientation; %)
We asked: “In your opinion, does the fact that several families of hostages have joined the protest movement against the government increase or decrease public support for bringing the hostages home now, even if the price being demanded by Hamas is very high?” In the total sample, the largest share of respondents (35%) think that this development serves to decrease public support, 30% that it increases support, and 22% that it has no effect.
Breaking down responses in the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that on the Left, the largest share of respondents think that the fact that several families of hostages have joined the protest movement against the government does not have any effect on public support for bringing the hostages home now. In the Center, the largest share of respondents think that this development increases public support, and on the Right, the majority think that it decreases public support.
Does the fact that several families of hostages have joined the protest movement against the government increase or decrease public support for bringing the hostages home now, even if the price being demanded by Hamas is very high? (Jewish sample, by political orientation; %)
We asked our respondents what Israel should do now that the majority of IDF forces have left the Gaza Strip. Almost half of them think that Israel should hand over control of the Strip to an international force or to the Palestinian Authority, around a quarter that Israel should maintain a limited military presence in order to control Gaza militarily, and a small minority (19%) support establishing Jewish settlements in Gaza.
In the Arab sample, a large majority support transferring military control of the Gaza Strip to a foreign entity, with the majority of these preferring the Palestinian Authority over an international force. Among Jews, the largest share (though not a majority) believe that control of the Strip should be handed over to an international force, and only a small minority (6.5%) favor transferring control to the Palestinian Authority. It is worth noting that this represents an increase relative to December 2023, when only 3.5% of Jews thought that control of Gaza should be handed over to the Palestinian Authority.
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation, we found that the majority of respondents on the Left and in the Center think that control of the Gaza Strip should be passed to a foreign entity (an international force or the Palestinian Authority). On the Right, opinion is divided, with similar shares in favor of handing control to a foreign entity, maintaining Israeli military control, and establishing Jewish settlements.
In your opinion, now that most of the IDF forces have left Gaza, what should Israel do? (%)
In the Jewish sample, less than a quarter of respondents support the establishment of Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip (22.5%), a decline of 3 percentage points since December 2023. A breakdown of responses by religiosity finds that the more religious the grouping, the higher the level of support for Jewish settlement in Gaza. Despite this, and with the exception of the Haredim (of whom 52% support the establishment of Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip), none of other religious groups expressed majority support for this option (national religious, 39%; traditional, 28%; secular, 7%).
In addition, we asked whether Israel should participate in rebuilding the Gaza Strip after the war. Only a small minority of Jews agree with this course of action, while among Arabs, almost two-thirds support it. Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that in all three camps, only a minority of respondents support Israeli participation in rebuilding the Gaza Strip, though there are considerable differences in the size of these minorities.
Certain or think that Israel should participate in rebuilding the Gaza Strip after the war (%)
The public mood ahead of the festival: In the Jewish sample, we found that in all religious groupings, from Haredi to secular, a clear majority of respondents say that their mood ahead of this year’s festival is worse than in previous years. Only among the Haredim is there almost parity between those who described their mood as similar to previous years and those who described it as worse.
How would you describe your mood ahead of this year’s Passover festival? (Jewish sample, by religiosity; %)
Trips, visits, and leisure activities on the festival: We asked our Jewish respondents: “Are you and your family planning to go out on trips, hikes, visits, and leisure activities during this year’s Passover?” Breaking down the data by religiosity, we found that in all groups, the largest share of respondents say that they will be undertaking trips, hikes, visits, and leisure activities to a lesser extent during this year’s Passover due to the security situation. However, the share of respondents who selected this option is smaller in the Haredi and national religious groups.
Are you and your family planning to go out on trips, hikes, visits, and leisure activities during this year’s Passover? (Jewish sample, by religiosity; %)