Israelis Divided on How to Handle the Iran Nuclear Program
62.5% of Jewish Israelis are pessimistic that a deal for the release of all the hostages will be reached soon; 45% of Israelis think the country should strike Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American backing; As we approach Israel’s 77th Independence Day, 48% of Israelis think Israel has had more successes than failures throughout the years.
The survey was conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute April 21-24, 2025. It was based on a representative sample of the population in Israel aged 18 and above, comprising 600 Jewish interviewees and 149 Arab interviewees.
- Although in all four national mood indicators the optimists constitute a minority, in April there was a slight increase in all of them compared to the previous month.
- The IDF Chief of Staff receives the highest rating for his performance, followed by: the President of Israel and the Attorney General. The Police Commissioner's ratings are the lowest in the general public, though on the Right, they are higher than in the Center and on the Left.
- A majority – especially among those who identify with the Left or Center – are pessimistic about the chances of reaching a deal to release all the hostages. Among Arabs, almost two-thirds are optimistic.
- Among Jews on the Left and Center, the majority believe that the Air Force Commander acted incorrectly when he announced the suspension of active service for those who signed the pilots' letter, and the same holds true in the Arab sample. On the Right, the majority believe he acted correctly.
- A small majority of the Jewish public believes it is inappropriate for reserve soldiers on active duty to participate in demonstrations or sign petitions on political issues. Among Arabs, the majority opinion is the opposite.
- The Israeli public is divided on whether President Trump will give high importance to Israel's security in talks with Iran.
- Among Jews, more than half support an Israeli strike on Iran even without American backing. Among Arabs, a large majority oppose this.
- In line with our findings last year, a small majority of Jewish respondents believe that the comparison between the Holocaust and the events of October 7 is valid, compared to a small minority among Arabs.
- The proximity of Memorial Day to Independence Day is favorable to the majority of the Jewish public, although a considerable minority would prefer separation between the two dates.
- In the context of Independence Day, about half of the public believe that Israel's balance of achievements so far tilts toward successes, but the percentage of those who hold this view is lower than in the past.
In the total sample, this month's findings show a slight increase in the share of optimists in all four national mood indicators, although in all of them the share of optimists is lower than the share of pessimists. Interestingly, in the two indicators for which the rates of optimists are the lowest, we found the largest increases this month (regarding the economic future, the increase was six percent: from 25% in March to 31% in April; the share of optimists regarding the future of social cohesion rose from 22% in March to 26% in April). The increases regarding the future of the security situation and the future of democratic rule are smaller (2.5% in each indicator), although it should be remembered that the rates of optimists here were initially higher.
Optimistic about the future (total sample; %)
Interestingly, while Arab respondents are usually less optimistic than Jews, in this measurement the share of optimists among Arabs was higher regarding the future of democratic governance (Arabs 49%; Jews 39%) and the future of social cohesion (Arabs 36%; Jews 24%). In the other two indicators, the share of optimists among Arabs was again lower this month than among Jews (future of the security situation: Jews 44%, Arabs 32%) and the future of the economic situation (Jews 32%, Arabs 25.5%).
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation reveals that in all four indicators, the share of optimists on the Left is the lowest, and on the Right, it is the highest. The share of those who are optimistic in the Center is closer to the share on the Left than to the Right. Across all political orientations, optimism is lowest regarding the future of social cohesion and the highest regarding the future of the security situation. It therefore seems that, similar to measurements before October 7, Israeli public opinion has returned to being most concerned about internal divisions and less about external threats.
Optimistic about the future, by political orientation (Jews; %)
We asked respondents to evaluate the professional performance of: President Isaac Herzog, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, and Police Commissioner Danny Levi.
The Chief of Staff receives the highest evaluation: the majority of respondents gave him positive grades (quite good or very good). However, likely due to the short time since he took office, over a quarter of respondents indicated they could not evaluate the Chief of Staff's performance. The President and the Attorney General received positive grades from almost half of the respondents compared to slightly smaller percentages of negative grades. Police Commissioner Danny Levi is the only one who received more negative than positive grades.
What grade would you give to each of the following for their professional performance? (total sample; %)
We calculated an average score for each official (on a scale from 1=very poor to 4=very good). Among Arabs, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara ranks first (3.08), followed by President Herzog (2.70), the Chief of Staff (2.18), while Police Commissioner Danny Levi ranks last (2.04). Among Jews, the Chief of Staff ranks first (3.12), followed by similar average scores for President Herzog (2.46) and Commissioner Levi (2.44), with Attorney General Baharav-Miara ranking last (2.35).
Breaking down by political orientation among Jews, the Attorney General receives the highest average rating on the Left and Center (3.50 and 3.11 respectively), while unsurprisingly on the Right she receives a particularly low average rating (1.82). In contrast, the Chief of Staff receives a high rating on the Right (3.22) but lower ratings in the Center and Left (3.06 and 2.68). The Police Commissioner is rated particularly low on the Left and Center (1.71 and 2.09), and the rating he received on the Right is also not particularly high (2.76).
When segmented by religiosity (Jews), among all groups except the secular, the Chief of Staff receives the highest evaluation followed by the Police Commissioner. Among the secular respondents, the Attorney General received the highest average rating, while particularly low ratings were given to her by the national religious and Haredim. The President received the highest average rating among Haredim and the lowest among the secular and traditional-religious.
Average Rating for Each of the Following Officials on Their Professional Performance
Against the backdrop of prolonged negotiations aimed at achieving a new hostage release deal, and disagreements in Israel over whether to insist on the release of all hostages or agree to a partial release, we asked: "Are you optimistic or pessimistic that a deal will be reached for the release of all the hostages soon?" In the total sample, the majority of respondents (57.5%) expressed pessimism regarding the feasibility of such a deal in the near future, compared to a minority who expressed optimism (36.5%).
Are you optimistic or pessimistic that a deal will be reached for the release of all the hostages soon? (total sample; %)
Among Jews, the share of pessimists (62.5%) is double the share of optimists (31%), while among Arabs the picture is reversed: the share of optimists (63%) is almost double the share of pessimists (34%).
A comparative analysis shows that both in our survey in August 2024 and now, the Arab public expressed much greater optimism than the Jewish public regarding the feasibility of such a hostage release deal (three times as much in the previous measurement and double in the current measurement). However, in both the Jewish and Arab samples, the share of optimists in April 2025 is higher than in August 2024 - an increase of about 15% in both cases.
Optimistic that a hostage release deal will be achieved in the near future (%)
*In August 2024, the question was phrased as follows: "Are you optimistic or pessimistic that a deal for the return of the hostages will be reached soon?"
Breaking down the findings by political orientation among Jews shows clear gaps: the share of optimists on the Right (39%) is significantly higher than in the Center (19%) and Left (15%), although across all orientations, the majority of respondents are pessimistic (Left – 83.5%, Center - 76%, Right - 53.5%). It is possible that the perception that the government's war policy will eventually lead to a hostage release deal is stronger on the Right, although even on the Right, optimists are the minority.
The Pilots' Letter - We asked: "In your opinion, did the commander of the Israeli Air Force act correctly or incorrectly when he announced that the pilots who had signed the letter calling for the release of the hostages even at the cost of halting the war would be removed from active duty—despite the fact that the letter did not include any reference to a refusal to serve?" Among Jews, a higher percentage (50%) believe that the commander acted incorrectly compared to 41% who support his decision (9% answered "don't know"). Among Arabs, the majority (56%) think that Major General Tomer Bar did not act correctly and just over a quarter (27%) believe he acted correctly (and 17% chose the answer "don't know"). In the total sample - 39% - acted correctly, 51% - acted incorrectly, 10% - don't know.
Breaking down the responses by political orientation (Jews) revealed very large differences: on the Left and Center, a very large majority (85% and 71% respectively) answered that the Air Force Commander acted incorrectly; in contrast, on the Right, a majority, albeit not large (56%), answered that Major General Bar acted appropriately.
Did the commander of the Israeli Air Force act correctly or incorrectly when he announced that the pilots who had signed the letter calling for the release of the hostages even at the cost of halting the war would be removed from active duty—despite the fact that the letter did not include any reference to a refusal to serve? By political orientation (Jews; %)
Participation of reserve soldiers on active duty in demonstrations and signing petitions on political issues - Just over half of the Jewish respondents believe it is inappropriate for reserve soldiers during active service to participate in demonstrations and sign petitions. However, this figure obscures the enormous difference between political orientations: while on the Left a very large majority (82%) believe these are appropriate actions even during active service, and so does a majority, albeit smaller, in the Center (62%), on the Right only a minority (27%) believe these are appropriate actions during active service, while the majority (69%) think it is inappropriate.
Among Arab respondents, a majority (63%) believe that participating in demonstrations and signing petitions are appropriate actions for reserve soldiers even when they are on active service (Jews: 42.5% - appropriate, 52.5% - inappropriate).
Believe it is appropriate for people in active reserve duty in the IDF to participate in demonstrations and sign petitions on political issues, by political orientation (Jews; %)
Against the backdrop of talks on Iran's nuclear program between the United States and Iran, we asked to what extent Israel's security would be a main consideration in the talks for President Trump. The responses indicate that public opinion is divided: in the total sample, about 45% of respondents believe that Israel's security will indeed be a main consideration (to a fairly large or very large extent), while a similar percentage assesses that Israel's security will be a consideration of low importance (to a fairly small or very small extent).
Against the backdrop of talks between the United States and Iran on the Iranian nuclear program, to what extent do you think that Israel’s security will be one of President Trump’s main considerations during these talks? (total sample; %)
The distribution of opinions among Jews and Arabs is quite similar, with a slight difference: 46% of Jews believe Trump will see Israel's security as a main consideration compared to 41.5% of Arabs. Notably, among the Arab public there is a high percentage (23%) of respondents who responded, "don't know."
Breaking down responses by political orientation among Jews shows significant gaps: on the Right, more than half of respondents (54%) believe that Israel's security will be a central consideration for Trump, while on the Left and Center only about a third (about 35%) believe so.
Israeli strike on Iran - We asked: "Do you agree or disagree that Israel should carry out a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American backing?" Here too the public is divided between 45% who agree that it should act this way and 41.5% who disagree.
Do you agree or disagree that Israel should carry out a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American backing? (total sample; %)
Comparing the Jewish and Arab samples reveals a completely different picture: among Jews, just over half (52%) believe that Israel should attack Iran even without American support compared to about a third (34.5%) who oppose it, while among Arabs a very large majority oppose such an attack in this situation (76%) compared to a small minority who express agreement (9%).
This question was first asked in a survey in 2012 and we repeated it several more times. In the total sample, in 2012, 31% supported attacking Iran without American backing. In subsequent measurements, the rate of those supporting such an attack was higher and relatively stable: 41% in February 2021, 51% in November 2021, 49% in September 2022, and 45% in the current measurement.
When examining opinions on this issue by political orientation (Jews), the differences between the camps were maintained in all measurements. On the Right, the share of supporters of an attack rose sharply since 2012 and remained stable in the last three measurements - about two-thirds of respondents. In contrast, on the Left and Center, support was always lower than on the Right. Moreover, although there was an increase in support for an attack on the Left and in the Center between 2012 and November 2021, since then there has been a significant decrease. Today the gap between the political orientations is particularly striking: the rate of support for attacking Iran on the Right (65%) is more than twice as high as support among the Center (33%) and Left (27%).
Support Israel military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities even without American agreement, by political orientation (Jews; %)
Validity of the comparison between the Holocaust and the events of October 7 - This month we repeated the question asked in the corresponding period last year: "Do you feel that there is or is not a basis for the comparison that many people are currently making between the events of the Holocaust and the events of October 7?" Almost no differences were observed between the two measurements, and apart from the large gap between Jews (most of whom see grounds for comparison) and Arabs (among whom only a minority believe it is a valid comparison), we found almost no significant gaps in the various breakdowns.
Among Jews, a small majority (57%) responded that there is a basis for comparison between the events, a slight increase compared to the percentage with this response in April 2024 (54%). In contrast, among Arab respondents, as last year, only a minority (21%) found that there is a basis this comparison (last year - 23%).
Breaking down the Jewish sample by political orientation showed that about half on the Left (51.5%) and Center (51%) feel this comparison is well-founded and a clear majority on the Right (60%) feel the two events are comparable (last year - Left 53%, Center 46%, Right 57%). That is, compared to last year, on the Left there is a tiny decrease in the percentage who see this as a valid comparison (-1.5%), and in the Center and Right there are small increases (5 percentage points and 3 percentage points, respectively).
Breaking down the Jewish sample by religiosity shows that Haredim are the group in which the percentage feeling that the comparison between the two events is well-founded is the highest of all religious groups (Haredim 68%, religious 51%, traditional-religious 62%, traditional non-religious 56%, secular 54%).
The proximity of Memorial Day to Independence Day - From time to time, the argument resurfaces that the proximity of Memorial Day to Independence Day creates too difficult an emotional and cognitive transition and that it would be better to separate them. In the first examination of the issue conducted at the Institute for Applied Social Research (which later developed into the Guttman Center and the Viterbi Center at the Israel Democracy Institute) in October 1972, the question was asked: "Until now Memorial Day and Independence Day fall out one right after the other. In your opinion, should there be more distance between the two days than there is now?" In that measurement, it was found that the Israeli-Jewish public was divided on this question: half thought the two holidays should be separated, while 40% preferred to leave the situation as it is, despite the fact that the majority of respondents (59%) believed Memorial Day negatively affects the mood on Independence Day, which begins immediately afterward. A year later, in April 1973, the percentage favoring separation between Memorial Day and Independence Day even rose slightly (55%). A similar percentage (56%) preferring separation was also found in March 1974, a few months after the end of the Yom Kippur War. However, many years later a change occurred - toward Memorial Day and Independence Day in 2012, the question was asked in the opposite format - whether the proximity between the two dates is correct or incorrect. In this measurement, a clear majority of respondents preferred to keep the current situation, with Memorial Day and Independence Day in proximity to one another (70%). In this year's measurement, 58% of Jews preferred the current situation, but still a considerable minority (29%) favored separating the two occasions. In other words, the preference for proximity has taken root over the years, but there are still many who would prefer separation between them.
Support separation between Memorial Day and Independence Day 1972-2025 (Jews; %)
In the past, this question was presented only to Jewish respondents. This year we also presented it to the Arab sample and found that among Arab respondents, the highest percentage (44%) preferred separation between Memorial Day and Independence Day, but 36% preferred the current situation (in this sample, a very high percentage - 20% chose the answer "don't know").
On the occasion of Israel's 77th Independence Day, we asked: "In general, how do the country’s successes so far stack up against its failures?" Almost half of the general public (48%) believe there have been more successes than failures, close to a quarter (23%) that there is a balance between the rates of successes and failures, while 19% think there have been more failures than successes.
Compared to previous governments, the findings of the current survey are very similar to the findings of the 2022 survey (conducted during the Bennett-Lapid government). In both of these measurements, the highest percentage (although not a majority) believed there are more successes than failures. However, this percentage is significantly lower than the 2020 measurement, when a clear majority believed the rate of successes is greater than the rate of failures.
The balance of Israel's successes and failures (total sample; %)
In the current measurement, only 8% of Arabs answered that Israel has more successes than failures, 37% think the balance is similar, and 25% answered that the country has had more failures than successes. A high percentage (about 30%) answered that they don't know. Among Jews, 56% think there are more successes than failures, 21% that there is a balance between successes and failures, while 17.5% believe there have been more failures.
Breaking down by political orientation (Jews) reveals that in all three camps, the percentage who believe Israel has more successes than failures is the highest, although in the Left and Center this percentage is less than half, while on the Right it is close to two-thirds.
Israel will very shortly be celebrating its 77th Independence Day. In general, how do the country’s successes so far stack up against its failures? (Jews; %)
Analysis by age groups reveals significant differences. Among Jews, young people (18-34) see more failures than successes: only 46% of them believe there are more successes than failures, compared to higher percentages among older adults (66% among 35-54 year-olds and 58% among those 55 and older). At the same time, 24.5% of young Jews believe there have been more failures than successes, a higher percentage than in the older age groups (12% among 35-54 year-olds and 15.5% among those 55 and older).
Among Arabs, the opposite trend was found: the oldest group (55 and older) sees more failures than successes: 36% of them believe so compared to lower percentages among younger people (24% among 35-54 year-olds and 21% among 18-34 year-olds).
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The April 2025 Israeli Voice Index was prepared by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone (to include groups that are under-represented on the internet) April 21-24, 2025, with 600 men and women interviewed in Hebrew and 149 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error was ±3.58% at a confidence level of 95%. Field work was carried out by Shiluv I2R. The full data file can be found at: https://dataisrael.idi.org.il.